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On Apr 25, 2016, at 12:47 PM, Jason Schiller <<a href="mailto:jschiller@google.com" class="">jschiller@google.com</a>> wrote:
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<div class="">I suspect the 30 days part does (to some extent) regulate outrageously large claims, as this is a real short term verifiable commitment. Without a possibility of a 30 day check you simply fall back to an officer attestation of a two year projected
need claim.</div>
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<div class="">I am trying to figure out what is the likely impact of only requiring a two year projected need claim. So my questions are regarding to what level of push back ARIN provides against two year projected need in general, and will that be sufficient
to prevent outlandishly large claims. </div>
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<div class="">Maybe another way to get at this is to compare end user transfer stats to ISP transfer stats. </div>
<div class="">- what percentage of ISP specified transfers are justified by past growth? by a two year projection?</div>
<div class="">- what percentage of end user specified transfers are justified by past growth? by a two year projection?</div>
<div class="">- what is the average size of ISP specified transfers that are justified by past growth? by a two year projection?</div>
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<div class="">- what is the average size of end user specified transfers that are justified by past growth? by a two year projection?</div>
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<div class="">- do we see a greater gap between average ISP size between specified transfers that are justified by past growth vs. by a two year projection?</div>
<div class="">- do we see a greater percentage of ISP transfers justified by a 2 year projection than end users?</div>
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<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Jason - </div>
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<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> While we dp collect statistics on the number of requests and outcomes, we do </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> not have the instrumentation of the needs-assessment process that would be</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> necessary to produce the type of statistics you request. It is also not clear that </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> such instrumentation would allow us to provide an exact percentage of requests </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> that are approved based on past growth vs. projections because ARIN takes </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> both factors into account when evaluating operational need. </div>
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<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> In order to provide some insight into how the needs-assessment process operates </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> with respect to past growth versus projection, we’ve provided several examples on </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> how the needs-assessment process would unfold for various 8.3 specified transfer </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> scenarios detailed below. </div>
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<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> When an existing ARIN account, ISP or End-User, requests an 8.3 Recipient </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> Transfer, ARIN will look at their historical utilization and determine the organizations </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> average 24-month usage trend. We will compare that to what they are currently </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> requesting to have transferred and determine if that amount aligns with </font><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">their prior </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> utilization trend. If it does align directly, then we consider that the justification for </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> their </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">24-month stated need, but often we have to also give some consideration to </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> the </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">information they
</span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">provide regarding future plans and potential impact on growth</span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> rate.</span></div>
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<div class="">=== <span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Example A</span></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">An existing ARIN Organization requests a /16 transfer via 8.3 transfer process.</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">They previously received the following IPv4 address space:</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/17 in December 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/17 in October 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/18 in July 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/19 in June 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/20 in May 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/20 in February 2015</font></div>
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</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">In this example, ARIN would request 24-month projections AND utilization information from the organization. We would verify they have utilized their previously received IPv4 blocks in accordance with policy
and determine their utilization trend. In this example, the organization has fully utilized their previous allocations and we note their historical utilization of 384 /24s over the past 18 months. Even though we are also taking their future plans into consideration,
their prior utilization trend is heavily weighted in justifying the newly requested /16 and they are approved. Their prior 24 months of utilization exceeds what they are requesting for the next 24 months.</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""><br class="">
</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">=== </font>Example B</div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">An existing ARIN Organization requests a /16 transfer via 8.3 transfer process.</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">They previously received the following IPv4 address space:</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/19 in December 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/20 in October 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/21 in July 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/22 in June 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">/23 in May 2015</font></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""><br class="">
</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">In this example, ARIN would again request 24-month projections AND utilization information from the organization. We would verify they have utilized their previously received IPv4 blocks in accordance
with policy and determine their utilization trend. In this example, the organization has fully utilized their previous allocations and we note their historical utilization trend of 62 /24s over the past 11 months. Their prior utilization suggests a utilization
trend of 136 /24s over a 24-month period (62 / 11 * 24mos = 135.3 or 136). The organization’s 24-month utilization trend does not meet or exceed the amount of IPv4 address space they are requesting for the next 24-month period, so the information they provide
regarding their future plans/need is more heavily weighted by ARIN staff. The information provided regarding future need paired with their utilization trend allows for an approval for the requested size (/16). </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""><br class="">
</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">=== </font><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Example C</span></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">An existing ARIN Organization requests a /16 transfer via 8.3 transfer process.</font></div>
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<div class="">Without providing the further background details, the requesting organization in this example has utilized their previously received blocks in accordance with policy and has a 24-month utilization trend of 65 /24s. The organization’s 24-month
utilization trend does not meet or exceed the amount of IPv4 address space they are requesting for the next 24-month period, so the information they provide <font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class="">regarding their future plans/need is more heavily weighted
by ARIN staff. The future need projections only slightly increase expected future utilization over their prior utilization trend and a need for 100 /24s is determined for the next 24-month period. Unfortunately, the information provided regarding future need
paired with their utilization trend does not allow for the approval of the requested /16, and a /17 (closest prefix size above their demonstrated need amount) is approved instead.</font></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">===</span></div>
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</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class=""> Similarly, if a new organization comes to ARIN for an 8.3 Recipient Transfer </font><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">we </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> would base their approval on any provider assigned space they are currently using </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> and their projections. We would do this similar to the examples noted above. </span></div>
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</span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> It is important to note that if a new organization comes to ARIN and isn't using any</span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> provider assigned space, we are only be able to base their approval amounts based </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> on their projections.</span></div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> When we ask organization for their forward projections, we also ask them to provide </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> details to show how they've arrived at their projections. We take into account factors </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> such as new networks, locations, products, services they plan on offering (and this</div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> includes consideration of anticipated address utilization within the first 30 days for </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> end-users.) </div>
<div style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""><br class="">
</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> Given we take all of these factors into account (and noting that we don’t precisely track if </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> they </font><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">qualified more heavily on historical usage vs. projections), we would estimate between</span></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> 50-75% of the approval decisions made are more heavily weighted by historical utilization </font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri,sans-serif" class=""> trend information. It is important to note that the historical utilization trend information </font><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">often </span></div>
<div class=""><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""> allows for an approval size equal to or greater than what is requested by most </span><span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">organizations. </span></div>
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<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">While this is not the level of detail that you desire, I hope it provides some useful insight</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">into the role of the future projections in the needs-assessment process.</font></div>
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<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">Best wishes on your policy development efforts!</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">/John</font></div>
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<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">John Curran</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">President and CEO</font></div>
<div class=""><font face="Calibri, sans-serif" class="">ARIN</font></div>
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