<div dir="ltr">I also found Owen's original spreadsheet useful, so I've attached it (along with an .xlsx version 500x as large). This tabular summary might also be useful as well.<div><br></div><div>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="462" style="border-collapse:collapse;width:462pt">
<colgroup><col width="72" span="2" style="width:72pt">
<col width="90" style="width:90pt">
<col width="118" style="width:118pt">
<col width="110" style="width:110pt">
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="29" style="height:29pt">
<td height="29" class="" width="72" style="height:29pt;width:72pt">/24 equiv</td>
<td class="" width="72" style="border-left-style:none;width:72pt">Count</td>
<td class="" width="90" style="border-left-style:none;width:90pt">/24 equivalents
covered</td>
<td class="" width="118" style="border-left-style:none;width:118pt">Percentage of
address space covered</td>
<td class="" width="110" style="border-left-style:none;width:110pt">Percentage of
transfers covered</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">1</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">44</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">44</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">0.07%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">20.09%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">2</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">20</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">84</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">0.14%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">29.22%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">4</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">31</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">208</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">0.35%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">43.38%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">8</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">13</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">312</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">0.53%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">49.32%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">16</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">28</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">760</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">1.29%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">62.10%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">32</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">16</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">1272</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">2.16%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">69.41%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">64</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">7</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">1720</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">2.92%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">72.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">128</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">5</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">2360</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">4.00%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">74.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">256</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">31</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">10296</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">17.47%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">89.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">512</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">7</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">13880</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">23.55%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">92.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">1024</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">4</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">17976</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">30.50%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">94.06%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">2048</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">6</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">30264</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">51.35%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">96.80%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height:17pt">
<td height="17" class="" align="right" style="height:17pt;border-top-style:none">4096</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">7</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">58936</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">100.00%</td>
<td class="" align="right" style="border-top-style:none;border-left-style:none">100.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table></div><div><br></div><div>-Scott</div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Oct 9, 2014 at 9:15 AM, John Springer <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:springer@inlandnet.com" target="_blank">springer@inlandnet.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">forwarded here by kind permission of Owen DeLong<br>
<br>
I hope that this will inform our discussions.<br>
<br>
John Springer<br>
<br>
---------- Forwarded message ----------<br>
Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2014 10:08:10<br>
From: Owen DeLong <<a href="mailto:owen@delong.com" target="_blank">owen@delong.com</a>><br>
Subject: [arin-council] Transfer Statistics analysis<br>
<br>
Based on today?s discussion, I took the liberty of putting together some analysis. The spreadsheet is included at the bottom for those that want to look at the raw numbers. I also included a PDF of the spreadsheet for those that may not be able to read a numbers spreadsheet.<br>
<br>
I imported the prefix lists for 8.3 and 8.4 transfers from ARIN?s website: <a href="https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/transfers.html" target="_blank">https://www.arin.net/<u></u>knowledge/statistics/<u></u>transfers.html</a><br>
<br>
Then I sorted by prefix size (descending prefix length) and created a column which computed the number of /24 equivalents represented by each prefix. In the next column, I summed the number of /24 equivalents covered by any policy affecting /n and longer (smaller).<br>
<br>
The next column shows what fraction of transfers (actual number of transfers or roughly the percentage of ARIN transfer workload) is impacted by a policy covering /n and longer (smaller).<br>
<br>
/24s represent 0.07% of the address space transferred and 20.09% of the number of transfers completed.<br>
/23s and longer (23 and 24) represent 0.14% of the address space transferred and 29.22% of the number of transfers completed.<br>
/22 and longer are 0.35% of address space and 43.38% of all transfers.<br>
/21 and longer covers 0.53% of address space and 49.32% of transfers completed.<br>
/20 and longer covers 1.29% of address space and 62.1% of transfers completed.<br>
/19 and longer covers 2.16% of address space and 69.41% of transfers completed.<br>
/18 and longer covers 2.92% of address space and 72.6% of transfers completed.<br>
/17 and longer covers 4% of address space and 74.89% of transfers completed.<br>
/16 and longer covers 17.47% of address space and 89.04% of transfers completed.<br>
<br>
IMHO, the address space column is a good measure of risk and the percentage of transfers completed is a good measure of benefit to any policy exempting needs basis testing for /n and longer. As such, I?ve added another column which shows the reward/risk ratio computed from these two measures.<br>
<br>
Personally, I think /20, covering 60+% of all transfers while risking roughly 1.29% of the address space is a good place to balance the risk for an initial cut at this policy. I might be persuaded with strong community support to accept /18 at 2.92% of address space and 72.6% of all transfers. Exempting almost 90% of all transfers from needs testing seems very far to go on an initial experiment.<br>
<br>
Owen<br>
<br>
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