<div dir="ltr">Be careful to define what you mean by hording...<div><br></div><div>One might consider acquiring enough IP addresses to </div><div>maintain current growth (or even greater than current growth </div><div>due to some hypothetical, yet to be released wiz-bang product),</div>
<div>for the period of time until wide spread IPv6 adoption an <br>insurance policy, and good business.</div><div><br></div><div>Being conservative in risk, one might guess wide spread</div><div>IPv6 adoption will safely happen in less than 25 years.</div>
<div>(it is better to be over by 5 years than under by 5 years)</div><div><br></div><div>Based on the current justified need of two years projected </div><div>growth based on data from growth in the last year, this </div>
<div>could be considered hording in two dimensions:</div><div>1. a use time horizon of greater than two years</div><div>2. a projection that is not based on past growth.</div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>The problem is corporations have deferred deploying</div>
<div>IPv6 until their IPv4 reserves have been depleted, as </div><div>there is real cost and risk and no new revenue. If</div><div>corporations can cheaply purchase IPv4 then they can</div><div>continue to defer. </div>
<div><br></div><div>This means the date by which an organization needs to</div><div>deploy IPv6 is the day before they run out of (or can no</div><div>longer cheaply purchase) IPv4. </div><div><br></div><div>Dual stack transition was supposed to work because </div>
<div>everyone would deploy IPv6 before the first organization </div><div>runs out of IPv4. But we moved the finish line from </div><div>when the first organizations run out to when each </div><div>individual organization runs out. </div>
<div><br></div><div>Each organization will run out at different times.<br></div><div>For organizations whose need for addressing continues </div><div>to grow, not having IPv4 for available growth puts you</div><div>at competitive disadvantage to your competition who</div>
<div>still has addresses. </div><div><br></div><div>So organizations that continue to grow need at least </div><div>enough addresses to cover their growth until wide </div><div>spread IPv6 adoption, or a longer growth horizon </div>
<div>then all their competitors that are growing and </div><div>competing for the same customer base. </div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div>WRT to speculation... one might argue that the</div><div>APNIC region is already out of IPv4, and there </div>
<div>is unmet need. If there is underutilized IPv4 </div><div>addresses, and an ARIN - APNIC inter-RIR </div><div>transfer policy, why haven't we already seen </div><div>lots of transfers?</div><div><br></div><div>__Jason</div>
<div><br></div></div><div class="gmail_extra"><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">On Thu, Jul 11, 2013 at 12:26 PM, cb.list6 <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:cb.list6@gmail.com" target="_blank">cb.list6@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div class="HOEnZb"><div class="h5"><p dir="ltr"><br>
On Jul 11, 2013 8:55 AM, "Chris Grundemann" <<a href="mailto:cgrundemann@gmail.com" target="_blank">cgrundemann@gmail.com</a>> wrote:<br>
><br>
> On Thu, Jul 11, 2013 at 8:39 AM, Mike Burns <<a href="mailto:mike@nationwideinc.com" target="_blank">mike@nationwideinc.com</a>> wrote:<br>
> > I see conservation not as a principle, I mean really the guiding principle<br>
> > should have been distribution of addresses, not conservation of them.<br>
> > The goal was to grow the Internet through the dissemination of addresses.<br>
> > Conservation was not the principle, it was the means to prevent the emptying<br>
> > of the free pool by bad actors.<br>
><br>
> Not true. As I have pointed out in several fora several times before,<br>
> conservation of the number space is NOT the same as conservation of a<br>
> free pool of addresses. The principle here is conservation of the<br>
> number space - the whole thing, not one arbitrary slice of it.<br>
><br>
> The definition of conservation from the science dictionary may be<br>
> helpful in illustrating what is meant by conservation of Internet<br>
> numbers: Conservation is generally held to include the management of<br>
> human use of natural resources for current public benefit and<br>
> sustainable social and economic utilization. In this case the resource<br>
> is the unique Internet number spaces (not just free pools).<br>
><br>
> > These recent incarnations of this proposal continue to try to shoehorn<br>
> > conservation as a principle, even to the point of including conservation<br>
> > inside registration.<br>
> > I don’t think it is either a principal or a goal, for that matter, just a<br>
> > protective mechanism for free pool addresses.<br>
> > With the exhaustion of the free pool, conservation has no place in the NRPM.<br>
> > Until that time, we don’t need to clutter the NRPM with some hoary language<br>
> > from another era.<br>
><br>
> If I can be so trite as to quote myself:<br>
><br>
> "Understanding that the useful life of IPv4 is far from over (raise<br>
> your hand if you have used IPv4 for a critical communication in the<br>
> past 24 hours) makes it quite easy to see that we still have a need to<br>
> "maximise the lifetime of the public IPv4 address space."<br>
><br>
> In fact, the IANA and RIR free pools have essentially been a buffer<br>
> protecting us from those who would seek to abuse the public IPv4<br>
> address space. As long as there was a reserve of IPv4 addresses,<br>
> perturbations caused by bad actors could be absorbed to a large extent<br>
> by doling out "new" addresses into the system under the care of more<br>
> responsible folks. Now that almost all of the public IPv4 address<br>
> space has moved from RIR pools into the "wild," there is arguably a<br>
> much greater need to practice conservation. The loss of the RIR free<br>
> pool buffer does not mark the end of "the lifetime of the public IPv4<br>
> address space" as Tore suggests but rather marks our entry into a new<br>
> phase of that lifetime where stockpiling and hoarding have become even<br>
> more dangerous."[1]<br>
><br>
> > I am still against the proposal.<br>
><br>
> As is your right.<br>
></p>
</div></div><p dir="ltr">Who would benefit from hoarding?</p>
<p dir="ltr">Hoarding seems like economic "dumping", there are rules and policies around it, but it has never really occured because the economics are wrong. The market ensures dumping does not occur.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Or like the FUD about walmart driving local business out and then jacking up prices after competition is gone, its just fud. People made a big noise about it 20 years ago, not any more. </p>
<p dir="ltr">I think the market is only interestes in transactions. Ipv4 addresses are like most cars, they depreciate rapidly so hoarding is not a real thing.</p>
<p dir="ltr">And, with google fiber at 77% ipv6 and vzw over 25%, i must say i would no hoard ipv4. </p>
<p dir="ltr">But, my ask is, lets not assume hoarding or threats to ipv4 by bad actors unless there is a real case that applies.</p>
<p dir="ltr">Afaik, arin brought transfers in to increase efficiency</p><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">
</font></span><p dir="ltr"><span class="HOEnZb"><font color="#888888">CB</font></span></p><div class="im"><br>
> Cheers,<br>
> ~Chris<br>
><br>
> [1] - <a href="http://www.circleid.com/posts/20130523_removing_need_at_ripe/" target="_blank">http://www.circleid.com/posts/20130523_removing_need_at_ripe/</a><br>
><br>
> > Regards,<br>
> > Mike Burns<br>
><br>
> > _______________________________________________<br>
> > PPML<br>
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><br>
> --<br>
> @ChrisGrundemann<br>
> <a href="http://chrisgrundemann.com" target="_blank">http://chrisgrundemann.com</a><br>
> _______________________________________________<br>
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<span style="color:rgb(0,0,0);font-family:arial"><font color="#555555" face="'courier new', monospace">_______________________________________________________<br></font><div><font face="'courier new', monospace">Jason Schiller|NetOps|<a href="mailto:jschiller@google.com" target="_blank">jschiller@google.com</a>|571-266-0006</font></div>
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