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<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>RE: [arin-ppml] fair warning: less than 1000 days left toIPv4 exhaustion</TITLE>
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<DIV dir=ltr align=left><BR><FONT size=2><SPAN class=203035107-05052008><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff> > </FONT></SPAN>Geoff disclaims certainty
in the 1000 days scenario...and of course most clear see the numbers and
estimates for what they are.<BR><SPAN class=203035107-05052008><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff> <FONT face="Times New Roman"
color=#000000>></FONT> </FONT></SPAN>But, given that we can see the
bottom of the pool and + or - 1 1/2 years, it's 3....then that should offer very
little consolation to those who think 3 is concrete.<BR><SPAN
class=203035107-05052008><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff> <FONT
face="Times New Roman" color=#000000>></FONT> </FONT></SPAN>The range
1.5-4.5 is perhaps scarier....<BR><BR><SPAN class=203035107-05052008><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff> Last year, less than 300 days ago, this counter
showed 1300 days and it was publicised a lot. I checked it several months
later and the number had gone up to more than 1400, I believe. Now suddenly
it is down to 1000!!!</FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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class=203035107-05052008></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT size=2><SPAN class=203035107-05052008><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff>It almost seems like we consume addresses slower than
average for a while, then a large allocation goes out and we have
suddenly consumed more than the average amount. Since we have no way of
knowing when larger allocations will happen perhaps the 1.5 year figure is more
likely than the 3 year figure.</FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=203035107-05052008></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff size=2><SPAN
class=203035107-05052008>In any case, the exact runout date is irrelevant. What
is more important is knowing the nearest possible date for runout since that is
the date you want to target with your IPv6 readiness plans. If you are IPv6
ready in 1.5 years, then it doesn't matter when IPv4 addresses run out. If you
need 3 years to become IPv6 ready, then you have a problem.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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class=203035107-05052008></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT size=2><SPAN class=203035107-05052008><FONT
face=Arial color=#0000ff>--Michael Dillon</FONT></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
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