[arin-ppml] Change of Use and ARIN (was: Re: AFRINIC And The Stability Of The Internet Number Registry System)

[hostmaster at uneedus.com]

Of course, if their were any serious possibility of IPv6 exhaustion, IETF 
might change the rules for the next /3, or maybe one of the later /3's.

For example, instead of a /64 assigned and /64 local part, they might opt 
to make the local part smaller, resulting in many many more addresses. 
Each bit slid doubles the number of addresses available in each /3.

However, I doubt that I will ever see anything close to IPv6 exhaustion in 
my lifetime.  The number is just too big.

Albert Erdmann
Network Administrator
Paradise On Line Inc.

On Sat, 4 Sep 2021, Owen DeLong via ARIN-PPML wrote:

>>> " Just curious Mike... Does this opinion on your part extend also to IPv6?"
>>>
>>> Of course not. IPv6 is not a scarce resource and there is no market for it
>>> to compete with the free pool.
>>
>> IPv6 isn't scarce -today-.  If we look out 25 years it may become so.
>> So then what?
>
> One of two things needs to occur for this statement to work:
>
> 	1.	IPv6 allocation policies need to radically change
> or	2.	You have to be really bad at math.
>
> So far, I believe 2 RIRs have received their second /12s from the first /3,
> so the total IPv6 distribution so far stands at 7 /12s + some earlier more
> specific RIR allocations from IANA which, IIRC, taken together add up to less
> than a /12, so let’s call it 8 /12s.
>
> THat’s lasted us 20+ years of IPv6 already. RIRs seem to be burning through
> roughly 1 /12 (total) every 5 years or so at current allocation rates. Let’s
> take that and assume that the IPv6 allocation rate will double every 5 years
> for the next 25 (very unlikely, but it’s OK.).
>
> So we’re at 8 /12s now, and by 2026, we’d be at 10 /12s issued. To compute 2031,
> we double to 4 /12s issued bringing the total to 14. By 2036, add 8 more for
> a total of 22 and 2041 adds 16 bringing the total to 38. Finally at the 25
> year mark, we’ll add another 32 bringing the total to 70 /12s issued.
>
> The initial /3 IETF has put into play as IPv6 GUA contains a total of 512 /12s,
> so in 25 years, even at the outlandish growth rate I posit above, we’ll still
> be just slightly past 10% of the first 1/8th of the total address space allocated.
>
> In short, absent some radical change in how addresses are used and allocated,
> it is unlikely that:
> 	1.	Anyone alive will survive to see IPv6 scarcity
> 	2.	Address scarcity will be the first fatal scaling limit seen
> 		in IPv6.
>
>> This seems to be what Lu Heng and others want, and strange as it may sound
>> coming from me, nobody has ever persuaded me that this would actually be a
>> Bad Idea... and I gather that you also would tend to view this idea favorably.
>
> I don’t think that’s a fair characterization at all.
>
> Owen
>
>
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