[arin-ppml] ARIN-2019-19 Require IPv6 before receiving Section 8 IPv4 Transfers

Mark Andrews marka at isc.org
Mon Jan 20 15:30:48 EST 2020

> On 21 Jan 2020, at 03:19, Michel Py <michel at arneill-py.sacramento.ca.us> wrote:
>> Andrew Kirch wrote :
>> I post here very rarely to not at all but your assertion that "IPv6 
>> is leveling off" ranges somewhere between insane and drug-addled.  
>> https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html 
> Zoom the graph between July 2019 and today and tell us which drug it is you are taking that shows you any growth for the last 6 or 7 months. Must be the good stuff. Shrooms ?

First peak in July 29.41% - Jan 18 30.39%.  Still going up.

If you look at the data set there have been plenty of times when a 6 month periods "looks like" they have flattened off but if you look at longer periods, a year or more,  you see a steady increase up to and including today.  Without bias in the clients to prefer IPv6 that graph should asymptote to 50% at 100% dual stack.  With 100% bias it should asymptote to 100% at 100% dual stack.  Neither of those positions represent reality of the client bias though it is fairly close to 100%.  

IPv6 growth also requires almost every piece in the path to have been upgraded to support IPv6.  It requires the clients to support IPv6.  It requires the CPE router to support IPv6.  It requires the ISP to turn on IPv6.  Each of those happen at different rates.

My laptops have supported IPv6 for the last 20 years.  My TVs don’t.  The Apple TV box does.  The network printer supports IPv6. The mobile phones support IPv6.  Now depending upon which box I happen to be using at a given time I will appear to be a IPv6 household or not.  It may be another 10 years before all my devices are IPv6 capable but it will come.  My ISP still doesn’t support IPv6 (I use a tunnel to HE) but they are working on it, according to my mate who works with them.  The CPE’s they ship support IPv6, they just haven’t turned it on at their end.  When they do that will be several million more IPv6 capable households.  At the moment my ISP is transitioning from their own DOCSIS network + ADSL wholesaled from Telstra to the NBN (wholesaled DOCSIS (in my case) / FTTH / VSDL / FTTC).  One transition at a time.


> Michel.
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Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742              INTERNET: marka at isc.org

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