[arin-ppml] Draft Policy ARIN-2019-19: Require IPv6 Before Receiving Section 8 IPv4 Transfers

Thu Nov 7 03:38:37 EST 2019

Hi Michel,

I said google and others. There are many similar stats (ISOC, APNIC, AKAMAI, Facebook, etc.), in fact, I think we are closer to 35% than 30%.

Can you really believe is a coincidence that all them are measuring approximately the same figures?

You're right in one thing: is 5-10% higher deployment levels in residential and cellular than enterprise. It is just a matter of time. "IPv4 Internet" was not having the actual penetration overnight, it took many years to reach all the planet (and there is still many folks that aren't connected and they will be directly connected to IPv6!).

Regarding the ICANN study, there are a lot of missconceptions there, which in my opinion make it wrong, including the perception of a dual-stack Internet, and the unrecognizion that we are going to an IPv6-only one. I talked about this with the authors after their presentation early this year in APNIC, and offered my help if they want to do it right.

I will suggest to read also (including comments):
http://www.circleid.com/posts/20190529_digging_into_ipv6_traffic_to_google_is_28_percent_deployment_limit/

And finally, regarding caches, they are there so a single download of a video or whatever contents goes to the cache, can be used millions of times. Of course, sometimes that specific content will be only used 1 time, some other times the download will be reapeated several times, etc., you know what I mean. But for sure it measn that you can *at least* count that a single download (most of the time done today by caches with IPv6), average, will be used several dozens of times, so any % of traffic, at the IX, must be multiplied by several number of dozen times. I guess there is some information about "average" number of downloads in the caches vs "number of utilizations" of that content and then we can figure out what the AMSIX numbers really say!

Do we consider that Internet traffic? Well, for me yes. I'm trying to know how much total "bits" the world is "consumming" at the very edge. Caches are just an improvement to that. If we don't have the caches, that traffic will be sent millions of times, so higher % of traffic thru the IXs and higher % of IPv6 over that.

Regards,
Jordi
@jordipalet

El 7/11/19 1:47, "ARIN-PPML en nombre de Michel Py" <arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net en nombre de michel at arneill-py.sacramento.ca.us> escribió:

    Matthew,

    > Matthew Wilder wrote :
    > The Google IPv6 stats page clearly states that their graph indicates the % of users who
    > access Google services using IPv6. That means eyeball networks, enterprise, non-profit,
    > government, etc. In other words, you might summarize this by saying "the Internet".

    No, you might not. Google does not measure IPv4-only traffic. Google measures the percentage of the people using it that are IPv6 enabled, which is not the entire Internet. It has nothing to do with the traffic on the Internet.

    BTW, I have measured the IPv6 share on the vast majority of ISPs that are IPv4-only.
    Guess what : it's 0%.

    Although I will gladly agree that "everyone uses google" is close enough to be taken seriously, it measures only humans.
    Hosts with no users do not use google. The Internet is not only humans. Some of us out there have computers on the Internet for different purposes than surfing the web.

    And when you look at these 30% that are enabled, you will find that the lion's share of them is people who have whatsoever no control of their host : eyeballs with a cell phone completely locked by the carrier. What Google measures, mostly, is captive eyeballs. Not the Internet.

    Case and point : open https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html
    Zoom in so the entire chart shows the last year. You will see the weekly pattern.
    Highs on Saturdays and Sundays, lows during the week. The only explanation is that people are using IPv6 more during the weekend because they are at home. This is confirmed by the sag that happens every year around NYE.
    What does it mean : that enterprises are not IPv6 enabled.

    This graph does _nothing_ to measure Internet traffic. You google, and you click on an IPv4 link. The actual traffic going through the Internet is IPv4, yet that graph says that you are using IPv6. It is not a valid measure of Internet traffic.

    The Internet is not Google. The Internet is not IPv6-enabled captive cell phone eyeballs. Not only.
    The valid measure of Internet traffic is at Internet eXchanges and on the backbone of ISPs.

    IPv6 is deployed at 30% of people who use Google at home.
    Less than 25% at the office, and this is very optimistic as some of the requests to google during week days would be made at home also.

    The 1/6th reduction during weekdays means that, the 8 hours that users are sitting at their office desk, they use IPv4.

    You are looking at the numbers that you want to see, not at the big picture.

    One more time :

    https://fedv6-deployment.antd.nist.gov/
    Look at Industry IPv6 and University IPv6, the big tables at the end.
    Maybe I'm color blind, but I see mostly red.

    https://stats.ams-ix.net/sflow/ether_type.html
    How do you explain that the traffic, which includes private connection between parties, at a major IX, is less than 3% ?
    Because there is a cache ? Well if it's cached locally, it is not Internet traffic, or is it ?

    Michel.

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