[arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance

[Mueller, Milton L]

Andrew:
I lean toward sticking with the status quo until there is more evidence of a problem. 5 years is a reasonably comfortable time frame. If there's an inflection that alters John's projected trajectory I think we can act then.

I was especially concerned about the potential subjectivity or variability of the definitions of "technical need" that were flying about, although the definitions focused on critical infrastructure seemed more solid and possibly acceptable.

--MM

From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On Behalf Of Andrew Dul
Sent: Friday, April 8, 2016 12:07 PM
To: arin-ppml at arin.net
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance

Do other members of the ARIN community believe that the current policy and operational practice is sufficient for now, or are there policy changes needed at this time?

Thanks,
Andrew
On 4/7/2016 12:24 PM, Scott Leibrand wrote:
Thanks, John.

It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.

Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?  Was there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?

-Scott

On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 11:44 AM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net<mailto:jcurran at arin.net>> wrote:
Folks -

Please forgive this omnibus email of information, but we've had sufficient individual
questions for 2-byte ASN data that it simply made more sense to provide one full
summary rather than reply to each question individually...

ARIN continues to have classic, 2-byte, AS numbers in inventory. Over the last few
years, we have received small blocks of them in our new delegations from the IANA,
obtained them from customer returns of AS numbers, or through revocations of AS
numbers due to non-payment of registration fees.

Our last AS block delegation from IANA was on 29 April 2015.  We received 99 2-byte
ASNs and 925 4-byte ASNs at that time, and do not expect to receive any additional
2-byte ASNs from the IANA in future delegations.  The 2-byte ASNs received from the
IANA in 2015 were added to the inventory and placed on hold.  The reason that the
2-byte ASNs were put on hold is that was not responsible to issue from the dwindling
quantity of these resources to parties that did not specifically request such while we
were still receiving AS number requests specifically asking for 2-byte AS numbers.

As of today, we currently have the following 2-byte ASNs in ARIN inventory:

       387 2-byte AS numbers on hold (most were routed at some point)
       535 2-byte AS numbers revoked
       133 2-byte AS numbers returned

  = 1,055 2-byte AS numbers returned/revoked/held (Total)

Customers requesting ASNs receive a 4-byte ASN by default.  If a request comes in
that specifically requests a 2-byte ASN, we inform the customer that we have noted
their special request and that we will accommodate it at the issuance phase of the
ticket process if we have 2-byte ASN available at that time.

Rate of issuance for 2-byte ASNs per month -

    1/2015: 68
    2/2015: 77
    3/2015: 74
    4/2015: 60
    5/2015: 7
    6/2015: 12
    7/2015: 16
    8/2015: 4
    9/2015: 7
    10/2015: 11
    11/2015: 7
    12/2015: 11
    1/2016: 5
    2/2016: 6
    3/2016: 13

A waiting list will only be applicable after depletion of the present 2-byte ASN inventory,
hence the following general run-out estimates are provided for consideration:

   - If we release all of the 2-byte ASNs from hold and issue ASNs strictly from smallest
     to largest, i.e. the practice prior to May 2015, it is likely that the current inventory of
     2-byte ASN's would last somewhere between 6 to 12 months.

  -  If we continue the current approach (wherein 4-byte ASNs are issued by default and
     2-byte ASNs are only issued upon special request), the current inventory of 2-byte
     ASNs would appear to last for many years (5+ years at present rate).

I hope the above information helps in your policy development efforts!

Thank you,
/John

John Curran
President and CEO
American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)

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