[arin-ppml] ARIN 2-Byte ASN inventory and issuance (was: Re: 2-byte ASN policy)

[Scott Leibrand]

Thanks, John.

It sounds to me like ARIN is already doing the right thing (saving 2-byte
ASNs for people who specifically want them), and that is sufficient for the
time being.  It does not appear that additional restrictions on who may
request a 2-byte ASN are necessary at this time.  If at some point 5+ years
down the road the rate of 2-byte ASN demand starts to exceed the recovered
supply and the 2-byte ASN inventory is depleted, we can consider a waiting
list and/or technical requirements for requesting a 2-byte ASN at that time.

Is there any other reason we need to consider taking action sooner?  Was
there something else I'm missing that prompted ARIN staff to start the
consultation process around a 2-byte ASN waiting list?

-Scott

On Thu, Apr 7, 2016 at 11:44 AM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:

> Folks -
>
> Please forgive this omnibus email of information, but we've had sufficient
> individual
> questions for 2-byte ASN data that it simply made more sense to provide
> one full
> summary rather than reply to each question individually...
>
> ARIN continues to have classic, 2-byte, AS numbers in inventory. Over the
> last few
> years, we have received small blocks of them in our new delegations from
> the IANA,
> obtained them from customer returns of AS numbers, or through revocations
> of AS
> numbers due to non-payment of registration fees.
>
> Our last AS block delegation from IANA was on 29 April 2015.  We received
> 99 2-byte
> ASNs and 925 4-byte ASNs at that time, and do not expect to receive any
> additional
> 2-byte ASNs from the IANA in future delegations.  The 2-byte ASNs received
> from the
> IANA in 2015 were added to the inventory and placed on hold.  The reason
> that the
> 2-byte ASNs were put on hold is that was not responsible to issue from the
> dwindling
> quantity of these resources to parties that did not specifically request
> such while we
> were still receiving AS number requests specifically asking for 2-byte AS
> numbers.
>
> As of today, we currently have the following 2-byte ASNs in ARIN inventory:
>
>        387 2-byte AS numbers on hold (most were routed at some point)
>        535 2-byte AS numbers revoked
>        133 2-byte AS numbers returned
>
>   = 1,055 2-byte AS numbers returned/revoked/held (Total)
>
> Customers requesting ASNs receive a 4-byte ASN by default.  If a request
> comes in
> that specifically requests a 2-byte ASN, we inform the customer that we
> have noted
> their special request and that we will accommodate it at the issuance
> phase of the
> ticket process if we have 2-byte ASN available at that time.
>
> Rate of issuance for 2-byte ASNs per month -
>
>     1/2015: 68
>     2/2015: 77
>     3/2015: 74
>     4/2015: 60
>     5/2015: 7
>     6/2015: 12
>     7/2015: 16
>     8/2015: 4
>     9/2015: 7
>     10/2015: 11
>     11/2015: 7
>     12/2015: 11
>     1/2016: 5
>     2/2016: 6
>     3/2016: 13
>
> A waiting list will only be applicable after depletion of the present
> 2-byte ASN inventory,
> hence the following general run-out estimates are provided for
> consideration:
>
>    - If we release all of the 2-byte ASNs from hold and issue ASNs
> strictly from smallest
>      to largest, i.e. the practice prior to May 2015, it is likely that
> the current inventory of
>      2-byte ASN’s would last somewhere between 6 to 12 months.
>
>   -  If we continue the current approach (wherein 4-byte ASNs are issued
> by default and
>      2-byte ASNs are only issued upon special request), the current
> inventory of 2-byte
>      ASNs would appear to last for many years (5+ years at present rate).
>
> I hope the above information helps in your policy development efforts!
>
> Thank you,
> /John
>
> John Curran
> President and CEO
> American Registry for Internet Numbers (ARIN)
>
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