[arin-ppml] Queue depth report?

Leif Sawyer lsawyer at gci.com
Tue Sep 30 12:35:57 EDT 2014

If folks are (still) really interested in playing around with the Run-Out forecasting,
I developed a set of scripts to automate this:


You can play around with the polynomial functions to see what works best on the
timescales that you're interested in.

I provide three different options for the start-date built-in (epoch, y2k, 2013)

Based on run-rate for 2000-to-date, my best-fit curves point to about Feb/Mar 2015.

Whereas contrasted against 2013-to-date, which doesn't see run-out until after Aug 2015.

Again, it's all a matter of curve-fitting and getting more data. 

There's not going to be any one "correct" date.

-----Original Message-----
From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On Behalf Of John Curran
Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 8:29 AM
To: owens at nysernet.org
Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Queue depth report?

On Sep 30, 2014, at 11:56 AM, Bill Owens <owens at nysernet.org> wrote:

> On Tue, Sep 30, 2014 at 11:46:24AM -0400, Mike Burns wrote:
>> Also we know that most allocation requests are for much larger 
>> blocks, thus we know that applicants will go away for at least three 
>> months between their meager allocations.
> Does the 4.1.8 policy of assigning only a single block for each request mean that if an application were approved for, say, a /22 but only /24s were available, that applicant would have only two choices, either take a single /24 or wait until a /22 was returned to the pool?


> Is there no option for them to say that four non-contiguous /24s would be acceptable to them?

Also correct; I believe that the community was concerned that (as we approached
depletion) a single very large request could effectively deplete the entire IPv4 block inventory, hence the 4.1.8 constraints on receiving a single block for each request.


John Curran
President and CEO

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