[arin-ppml] Queue depth report?
jcurran at arin.net
Tue Sep 30 11:23:48 EDT 2014
On Sep 30, 2014, at 10:45 AM, Matthew Kaufman <matthew at matthew.at> wrote:
> I've been watching Geoff's ARIN runout prediction slip out into the future, and reading here about increased review leading to slower processing... Is runout being delayed just because legitimate applications for space are queuing up?
> Can we get a report on historical and current application queue depth from staff?
Queue lengths for IPv4 assignment and allocations did lengthen slightly
when we instituted team review (per Phase 1 of the countdown plan which
was reached in April), but they've been steady since and are not what is
driving Geoff's runout numbers to slip...
Geoff's outlook is based on recent allocation history (he does a least
squares linear best fit on this data), which means that his estimate
will move up after a very large allocation (such as was made in this
past April) and then will begin to slide out if the following months
do not maintain that predicted higher allocation rate.
The second graph on this page shows the monthly allocation from the
free pool in terms of /24 equivalents; the April allocation is rather
pronounced - <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/index.html>
Geoff's best fit for ARIN Address Allocation Rate can be seen in the
graph here - <http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/fig27i.png> Note how
it spiked after that allocation, but has been slowing down since...
(it's a little hard to read because of the 5 year scale, but the
newest non-zero data on the far right side is the important part.)
If we should make another large assignment or allocation, then Geoff's
estimates will pull in according; Geoff has noted on several occasions
that towards the end of the free pool, it becomes fairly difficult to
have a reliable prediction since it becomes more about the timing of a
rather small number of discrete events (e.g. the very large allocations)
than the calculated run rate.
If you need anything additional, please let me know... (Also, I've cc'd
the esteemed Geoff Huston on this email; it's only fair in any lengthly
discussion of his great efforts. :-) )
President and CEO
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