[arin-ppml] 2014-14 Transfer Statistics analysis

Scott Leibrand scottleibrand at gmail.com
Thu Oct 9 09:31:07 EDT 2014


I also found Owen's original spreadsheet useful, so I've attached it (along
with an .xlsx version 500x as large).  This tabular summary might also be
useful as well.

   /24 equiv Count /24 equivalents covered Percentage of address space
covered Percentage of transfers covered  1 44 44 0.07% 20.09%  2 20 84 0.14%
29.22%  4 31 208 0.35% 43.38%  8 13 312 0.53% 49.32%  16 28 760 1.29% 62.10%
32 16 1272 2.16% 69.41%  64 7 1720 2.92% 72.60%  128 5 2360 4.00% 74.89%
256 31 10296 17.47% 89.04%  512 7 13880 23.55% 92.24%  1024 4 17976 30.50%
94.06%  2048 6 30264 51.35% 96.80%  4096 7 58936 100.00% 100.00%

-Scott

On Thu, Oct 9, 2014 at 9:15 AM, John Springer <springer at inlandnet.com>
wrote:

> forwarded here by kind permission of Owen DeLong
>
> I hope that this will inform our discussions.
>
> John Springer
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> Date: Mon, 6 Oct 2014 10:08:10
> From: Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com>
> Subject: [arin-council] Transfer Statistics analysis
>
> Based on today?s discussion, I took the liberty of putting together some
> analysis. The spreadsheet is included at the bottom for those that want to
> look at the raw numbers. I also included a PDF of the spreadsheet for those
> that may not be able to read a numbers spreadsheet.
>
> I imported the prefix lists for 8.3 and 8.4 transfers from ARIN?s website:
> https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/transfers.html
>
> Then I sorted by prefix size (descending prefix length) and created a
> column which computed the number of /24 equivalents represented by each
> prefix. In the next column, I summed the number of /24 equivalents covered
> by any policy affecting /n and longer (smaller).
>
> The next column shows what fraction of transfers (actual number of
> transfers or roughly the percentage of ARIN transfer workload) is impacted
> by a policy covering /n and longer (smaller).
>
> /24s represent 0.07% of the address space transferred and 20.09% of the
> number of transfers completed.
> /23s and longer (23 and 24) represent 0.14% of the address space
> transferred and 29.22% of the number of transfers completed.
> /22 and longer are 0.35% of address space and 43.38% of all transfers.
> /21 and longer covers 0.53% of address space and 49.32% of transfers
> completed.
> /20 and longer covers 1.29% of address space and 62.1% of transfers
> completed.
> /19 and longer covers 2.16% of address space and 69.41% of transfers
> completed.
> /18 and longer covers 2.92% of address space and 72.6% of transfers
> completed.
> /17 and longer covers 4% of address space and 74.89% of transfers
> completed.
> /16 and longer covers 17.47% of address space and 89.04% of transfers
> completed.
>
> IMHO, the address space column is a good measure of risk and the
> percentage of transfers completed is a good measure of benefit to any
> policy exempting needs basis testing for /n and longer. As such, I?ve added
> another column which shows the reward/risk ratio computed from these two
> measures.
>
> Personally, I think /20, covering 60+% of all transfers while risking
> roughly 1.29% of the address space is a good place to balance the risk for
> an initial cut at this policy. I might be persuaded with strong community
> support to accept /18 at 2.92% of address space and 72.6% of all transfers.
> Exempting almost 90% of all transfers from needs testing seems very far to
> go on an initial experiment.
>
> Owen
>
>
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