[arin-ppml] 2014-2 8.4 Anti-flip Language

[Andrew Sullivan]

On Mon, Feb 24, 2014 at 05:10:23PM -0800, Owen DeLong wrote:
> 
> Look at the effect house flipping had on the California real estate market.

That is a terrible analogy.  IPv4 space is very close to a pure
commodity, and moreover it is one for which there is an imperfect
substitute.  Also, despite the attempts of various (in my opinion,
misguided) people to nail IPv4 space to physical location, as a
practical matter you can move your IPv4 in a way you can't move your
house, much less your land.

If we are going to draw analogies with speculative markets, surely
commodity markets like grains, livestock, and textiles are better
analogies.  And indeed, such analogies are instructive, because
commodity markets in which there is massive speculation tends to drive
people to the alternatives, even if they're imperfect.  Raise the
price of coffee enough, and you find that chickory markets rise.
Indeed, I believe Lee Howard has presented an analysis that suggests
the tipping cost for abandoning IPv4 in favour of v6 is rather lower
than many people have imagined.  Even if he is off by some margin,
the benefits of strong regulation attempts on this sort of v4 market
activity are far from obvious.  They might actually be harmful, to the
extent they inspire people to devote energy to gaming the v4
regulations in stead of just working to move to v6.

Best regards,

Andrew

-- 
Andrew Sullivan
ajs at anvilwalrusden.com