[arin-ppml] NRPM 4.10 - is a /10 large enough?

[Bill Owens]

A couple of recent threads here and my general sense of the (lack of) urgency around IPv6 deployment has made me wonder whether setting aside a /10 under NRPM 4.10 - Dedicated IPv4 block to facilitate IPv6 Deployment - is really going to be enough. I was looking at Geoff Huston's graphs (http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/) and noticed that both RIPE and APNIC, by coincidence, will be using up the first /10 out of their reserved /8s at about the same time, near the end of this year. A naive calculation says that APNIC will go through the /10 in about 3.5 years, and RIPE in about 2.2 years. Of course it is difficult to predict how the runout of the reserved /10 under 4.10 will look, but I think it's reasonable to assume that it won't be any slower than 2-3 years, since unlike RIPE and APNIC there's no limit to how much space an entity can receive under 4.10, only the pace at which it can be handed out; assuming the maximum rate, a /22 can be issued to someone every two years, rather than once and done as with the other two RIRs.

Given that the inventory currently contains one /9 and one /10, we are getting close to the point where any additional set-asides will no longer be possible, so I thought it might be worthwhile at least considering whether the 4.10 pool ought to be enlarged while it still can be. . .

Bill.