[arin-ppml] A Redefinition of IPv4 Need post ARINrun-out(was:Re:Against2013-4)

Mike Burns mike at nationwideinc.com
Thu Jun 13 10:17:23 EDT 2013


Hi Brian,

Thanks for your thoughts. 
No doubt a more vigorous transfer market will lead to more router misconfigurations.
I think a knowledgeable middle-man could help mitigate that, and would take business from the guy getting into the game without networking knowledge you mention below.

There is real uncertainty when dealing with the registries. A recent transaction took nearly a month to complete, most of which was spent in the back and forth of a justification. It’s always a fingers-crossed situation for buyer and seller. One broker told me she does the “happy dance” every time a deal makes it through justification.

Your point about moving to IPv6 is important, because that move is the 800lb gorilla in the room.
Nobody knows when the move will happen or  how long it will take, but when it happens it is bound to affect IPv4 prices negatively.
Who would speculate under these conditions?  
What if we limited his total purchases to a /12, or his aggregate holdings to a /12, otherwise he would be needs-tested?

Regards,
Mike




From: Brian Jones 
Sent: Thursday, June 13, 2013 9:30 AM
To: Mike Burns 
Cc: Mike Burns ; arin-ppml at arin.net 
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] A Redefinition of IPv4 Need post ARINrun-out(was:Re:Against2013-4)

Mike,
See inline comments.


On Wed, Jun 12, 2013 at 10:05 PM, Mike Burns <mike at nationwideinc.com> wrote:

  Hi Brian,

  I understand that there is a danger of overpurchasing (by whomever's definition) that comes from the removal of a needs test for transfers.
  In most cases we rely on the price of the addresses to provide some check on this practice, as it would for the overpurchasing of any other asset a corporation may choose to invest in. I think we should leave those definition of what an overpurchase is to the buyers, who will have a range of intended purposes, projected growth rates, planning horizons and other considerations. At least with a cap of some sort we limit the overpurchase risk to overall address usage efficiency.

  A vibrant market is one of the best mechanisms to prevent what you mention-the problem of addresses sitting idle while real need exists.


At the risk of contradicting myself, I'm not sure a vibrant market is the best answer for the networking community, but I don't disagree that what you propose would invigorate the market. See my comments below about network stability.

 
  As the price of addresses rise and transactional roadblocks diminish, idle addresses will come into the market. As the need rises, the price will rise, driving efficiencies in the utilization of addresses and wringing the most efficiency through the highest and best use of the addresses.

I would agree that as demand rises the prices will increase, but maybe, just maybe most folks will be considering the move to IPv6 where these contentions and price increases will not exist.
 

  And as I mentioned, due to the needs test requirement, these early IPv4 address transactions almost always involve neophyte parties on either side of the transaction, separated by language, culture, and an ocean. Often these parties are not familiar with their own RIR policy, much less the policy of another region. Most of the time the decision to sell or buy addresses has to overcome corporate inertia and antipathy to new, unusual, and unlikely-to-be-repeated transactions. This means education about the RIRs and their position squarely in the middle of the buyer and the seller.

  How likely is this transaction to occur for small allocations like the /24 needed by Mr. Ryerse of this thread?

  I contend that removing the needs requirement will allow for less uncertainty in what is currently a fraught process for both buyers and sellers, leading to more transactions, more price stability, and simpler transactions for all parties, including ARIN, who will avoid the time and effort of needs testing transfers.


I appreciate your contention, and it is possible that some of the things you mention may actually pan out, but I do not agree with the "less uncertainty" part of your statement. I would contend removing all needs assessment would create more uncertainty by promoting that anyone can get in the game of brokering IP addresses regardless of their knowledge about networking. Also by increasing the amount of times IP addresses get swapped around the Internet could increase the possibility for networking instability and router misconfiguration issues. 

--
Brian

 
  Regards,
  Mike



    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: Brian Jones 
    To: Mike Burns 
    Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net ; Mike Burns 
    Sent: Wednesday, June 12, 2013 9:28 PM
    Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] A Redefinition of IPv4 Need post ARINrun-out(was:Re:Against 2013-4)

    Hi Mike, 

    I suppose it is just my old school thinking that you should be at least "this tall" to ride the ride. Given your explanations below I could relax my requirements for demonstrating technical support need for transfers. I actually didn't realize we were only considering transfers and not the remaining free blocks, so thank you for clarifying that. 

    It still seems that inefficient use of address space could occur when a bidder buys much larger blocks than needed due to the lack of any structured needs requirements. At a minimum a block of addresses could sit idle and unused while needs exists elsewhere. But really IPv6 should be the best solution for those needing addresses moving forward any way... :) 

    Brian 


    On Jun 12, 2013 3:15 PM, "Mike Burns" <mike at iptrading.com> wrote:
    >
    > Hi Brian,
    >  
    > Thanks for your input.
    >  
    > May I ask why you think there should be a requirement for demonstration of minimal technical need for transfers, if the reason is not to prevent hoarding and price manipulation?
    >  
    > Remember we are talking only about transfers, and not the intelligent allocation of the remaining IPv4 free pool, and that money will be the determining factor in who receives IPv4 addresses under the current transfer policy, so long as the needs test is met. That is, we are already at a point where the highest bidder will get the addresses, irrespective of what his justified need for the addresses is, just that he has met the RIR need test.
    >  
    > I have been operating under the assumption that the underlying reason for requiring the needs test for transfers which are already priced is to prevent a buyer without needs from damaging the market through hoarding or cornering. I understand that many people simply do not like the idea that address blocks can be bought and sold, and that money has any influence on who gets addresses, but we are beyond that now.
    >  
    > Regards,
    > Mike
    >  
    >  
    > From: Brian Jones
    > Sent: Wednesday, June 12, 2013 2:54 PM
    > To: Mike Burns
    > Cc: arin-ppml at arin.net
    > Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] A Redefinition of IPv4 Need post ARIN run-out(was:Re:Against 2013-4)
    >  
    >
    > Maybe that was utopian thinking on my part. It would be nice to disregard what happens with IPv4 space but that seems to invite some sort of chaos and the last thing needed is more chaos...
    >
    > Intelligent allocation of the remaining IPv4 space is important in my opinion.
    >
    > From Dave Farmer's email earlier:
    > "I think the more important issue is an appropriate criteria on the lower-end and for new enterants, the current slow-start for IPv4 isn't going to work, post-ARIN free pool.  Yes, I know eliminating need alltogether eliminates that problem, but I'm not sure I can get myself all the way there.  I'd like to see some minimal technical criteria that entitles someone to be able to buy up to between a /16 and a /12 and more than just that they have the money to do so.  Maybe its just as simple as demonstrating efficient use of at least a /24.  If you can't do that then you can only buy a /24, then you utilize it and you qualify for bigger blocks. "
    >
    > Regardless of whether the size blocks discussed is agreeable or not, I do agree wth the part about the need for "...minimal technical criteria that entitles someone to be able to buy up to between a /16 and a /12 and more than just that they have the money to do so."
    >
    > (Of course I support the idea that we all move to IPv6!) :)
    >
    > --
    > Brian
    >
    >
    > On Wed, Jun 12, 2013 at 11:20 AM, Mike Burns <mike at nationwideinc.com> wrote:
    >>
    >> Hi Brian, Matthew, and Martin,
    >>  
    >> Can I take your plus ones to indicate support of the cap even in the face of the shell company issue?
    >> (As well as support of the idea that we should all move to IPv6.)
    >>  
    >> Regards,
    >> Mike
    >>  
    >>  
    >> From: Brian Jones
    >> Sent: Wednesday, June 12, 2013 11:03 AM
    >> To: arin-ppml at arin.net
    >> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] A Redefinition of IPv4 Need post ARIN run-out (was:Re:Against 2013-4)
    >>  
    >>  
    >>  
    >>  
    >>  
    >> On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 10:42 PM, Martin Hannigan <hannigan at gmail.com> wrote:
    >>>
    >>> On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 10:24 PM, cb.list6 <cb.list6 at gmail.com> wrote:
    >>>>
    >>>>
    >>>> On Jun 11, 2013 7:15 PM, "Matthew Kaufman" <matthew at matthew.at> wrote:
    >>>> >
    >>>> > When will we start caring about IPv6 and start ignoring IPv4??? Who cares if people set up shells to acquire v4 space from others? Let 'em, and get v6 deployed already.
    >>>> >
    >>>>
    >>>> +1
    >>>>
    >>>> CB
    >>>
    >>>
    >>> +1
    >>>
    >>> Best,
    >>>
    >>> -M
    >>>
    >>>
    >>
    >>
    >> +1
    >>
    >> --
    >> Brian
    >>
    >>  
    >>>
    >>>
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    >  

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