[arin-ppml] quantitative study of IPv4 address market

[Joe Maimon]

Paul Vixie wrote:
> to me the most significant fact in all of this is that well capitalized
> organizations do not act as if, in any way, there was an impending ipv4
> exhaustion event, or even a shortage. they are by and large not treating
> ipv6 as though it was an imminent necessity. they know they can get ipv6
> and run dual stack or translators for it at any time. their panic is
> limited to laying in a long term supply of ipv4 because they will need
> one or more half-decades to turn ship. they imagine, dimly if at all,
> that less well capitalized enterprises will move first their growth and
> then eventually their installed base to ipv6 but will not lose the
> ability to reach ipv4 -- ever. in this view, 2**32 addresses will go to
> the highest bidder, except for the dribs and drabs needed for "the 99%"
> to use various kinds of NAT or address translation.
>
> i am appalled. this is the same attitude that melts polar ice caps.
>
> paul
> _______________________________________________


Its really difficult to expect large quantities of entities to behave in 
ways immaterial or counter to their immediate self interest.

IPv6 is a nice plan A, but plan B is to make sure you have enough IPv4 
for your needs.

As soon as Plan B is secure, there is much less incentive to focus on 
Plan A. This is not good for those focusing on Plan A and/or with 
limited accessibility to Plan B.

This is why I advocate conserving and preserving ARIN's role in 
providing a Plan B for as much of the community that it can, and in 
particular, the segment of the community likely to be in the most need 
of it.

Otherwise, the inequality will be between those who were able to execute 
their plan B and those who were not.

For most, there is still no first mover advantage to IPv6. Turning it on 
does not enlarge or enhance their audience now or in the near future.

It does not even solve difficulties that some of the audience may be 
having with CGN or what-not, unless they can be convinced to go and get 
themselves v6.

So for most, the thinking seems to be along the lines of, "if everybody 
else can send me email, then it is your problem if you cannot and I 
don't particularly care how you solve it".

Joe