[arin-ppml] quantitative study of IPv4 address market
jmaimon at chl.com
Wed Sep 5 13:24:39 EDT 2012
Paul Vixie wrote:
> to me the most significant fact in all of this is that well capitalized
> organizations do not act as if, in any way, there was an impending ipv4
> exhaustion event, or even a shortage. they are by and large not treating
> ipv6 as though it was an imminent necessity. they know they can get ipv6
> and run dual stack or translators for it at any time. their panic is
> limited to laying in a long term supply of ipv4 because they will need
> one or more half-decades to turn ship. they imagine, dimly if at all,
> that less well capitalized enterprises will move first their growth and
> then eventually their installed base to ipv6 but will not lose the
> ability to reach ipv4 -- ever. in this view, 2**32 addresses will go to
> the highest bidder, except for the dribs and drabs needed for "the 99%"
> to use various kinds of NAT or address translation.
> i am appalled. this is the same attitude that melts polar ice caps.
Its really difficult to expect large quantities of entities to behave in
ways immaterial or counter to their immediate self interest.
IPv6 is a nice plan A, but plan B is to make sure you have enough IPv4
for your needs.
As soon as Plan B is secure, there is much less incentive to focus on
Plan A. This is not good for those focusing on Plan A and/or with
limited accessibility to Plan B.
This is why I advocate conserving and preserving ARIN's role in
providing a Plan B for as much of the community that it can, and in
particular, the segment of the community likely to be in the most need
Otherwise, the inequality will be between those who were able to execute
their plan B and those who were not.
For most, there is still no first mover advantage to IPv6. Turning it on
does not enlarge or enhance their audience now or in the near future.
It does not even solve difficulties that some of the audience may be
having with CGN or what-not, unless they can be convinced to go and get
So for most, the thinking seems to be along the lines of, "if everybody
else can send me email, then it is your problem if you cannot and I
don't particularly care how you solve it".
More information about the ARIN-PPML