[arin-ppml] quantitative study of IPv4 address market

[Jimmy Hess]

On 9/4/12, Steven Ryerse <SRyerse at eclipse-networks.com> wrote:

Some organizations may like to traditionally plan out very long
periods of time, when possible, but when it comes down to it,  you
can't guarantee there will be gas available to buy for your car next
month,  let alone that you will have secured all the resources
required for 30 years of operation;  I don't hear of organizations
ordering from Cisco/HP/Dell/IBM/Sun, all the routers and servers they
will need for the next 30 years,   i'm not sure where the expectation
came from you should be able to "Order up from ARIN" all the IP
addresses you project that you will ever need.


IP address are allocated based on justified need.  "Planned" future
use is not need; it is prediction that a resource might be needed in
the future. Providing a "guarantee"  that number addresses are
available some time in the years ahead is not a function of the
internet registry;  if  you don't need the number relatively soon,
then wait, and ask for it when you need it,  there are no guarantees
for anyone,  just as there are no real guarantees the free pool won't
be exhausted next month.

90 days is sufficient time to seek number resources on the transfer
market and other sources.


[snip]
> purchase real estate and either have a 30 year mortgage or depreciate the
> property over 30 years.  These horizons have been built into the US & state
> tax codes for many decades.  This community, it appears in large part
> because of IPv4 exhaustion – has decided a 3 month horizon is acceptable in
> certain cases.  No company big or small is going to risk the significant
> capital it takes to build a data center or build an ISP if they can only be
> sure of 90 days’ worth of IP addresses that they need to run their business.
[snip]


--
-JH