[arin-ppml] Draft Policy ARIN-2012-6: Revising Section 4.4 C/I Reserved Pool Size

[Martin Hannigan]

I don't think it's big enough either since I initially proposed a /14.
Getting it on the docket was the goal and modifying it to a /15 to
silence the minority majority was the path of least resistance.

There were ~1900 applicants with an expected success rate of 70%
leaving ~1300 which most are primarily being applied for by currently
US companies. There are some foreign entities, but it's noise. If you
assign a /24 to each you're looking at a little more than a /14. The
noise should allow for the impact of IX's and other CI. I think a /14
is right.

Best,

-M<


On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 5:47 PM, Christopher Morrow
<christopher.morrow at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 4:02 PM, Gary Buhrmaster
> <gary.buhrmaster at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, Oct 18, 2012 at 11:25 AM, Christopher Morrow
>> <christopher.morrow at gmail.com> wrote:
>> .....
>>>> Given ICANN's discussions to significantly expand the number of gTLDs, I
>>>> think expanding the CI reservation from /16 to /15 is a reasonable
>>>> precaution.  However, my prediction is that a /15 should be sufficient for
>>>
>>> I don't disagree that 'enlarging it..' seems good. I don't get a good
>>> feeling at all about how large is 'enough'.
>>>
>>>> several years of gTLD and other CI growth, I'm think 2 to 5 years. If that
>>>> turns out to be incorrect, then I would support expanding the reservation
>>>> with future returned space as necessary.  But, I think we can take wait and
>>>> see approach in dealing with that contingency.
>>>
>>> I think the timeframe is not 2-5 yrs, but 'how long is it that v4 is
>>> still relevant/required at the TLD level?" and I'd expect that to last
>>> much further out than 2-5yrs... I was thinking at least 10 if not 20
>>> yrs.
>>
>> Unfortunately, I am afraid that the only answer of how much
>> space is enough, or how long will IPv4 be relevant will be of
>> the form "We will know it when we experience it".  Enlarging
>> the CI reserved space now seems to have little long term
>> downside (since we can always reduce it if not needed), with
>> the upside of having the space if we need it (for 10+ years).
>>
>> I support the policy.
>
> I forgot to say that in general I support the policy, I just don't get
> a good feeling that /15 is large enough.
> I also (as said) don't know what would be 'large enough', so... sure, 15.
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