[arin-ppml] Draft Policy ARIN-2012-6: Revising Section 4.4 C/I Reserved Pool Size

[Christopher Morrow]

On Wed, Oct 17, 2012 at 10:27 PM, David Farmer <farmer at umn.edu> wrote:
> On 10/17/12 15:18 , Christopher Morrow wrote:
>>
>> ok, sorry for the extra noise, but these ought to be a bit more
>> readable: (axis labels)
>>
>> CI space allocations /24 equivalents: <http://goo.gl/KEvsW>
>>
>> all allocations /24 equivalents: <http://goo.gl/aZjgr>
>>
>> a combined picture: <http://goo.gl/f8e7Y> (yes, autoscaling isn't my
>> friend today)
>>
>> and another silent contributor asked about 'can I see all allocations
>> as a total over time?':
>>    <http://goo.gl/3QdKM>
>>
>> -chris
>
>
> So Chris, those are the allocations from the two /8s in question, and as you
> say below they are not necessarily all CI allocations.

yup

>
>> o a polite caller notes I am counting all allocations in the 2 /8's
>> where CI allocations are currently being made, these are not actually
>> all CI allocations. (every square is a rectangle, not every rectangle
>> is a square)
>
>
> I did analysis on the allocations documented at;
>
> <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/micro_allocations.html>

yup, it'd be nice if that were easier to parse automatedly :(
I wonder if adding the policy under which the block was allocated
could be easily added to the allocation data at:
  <ftp://ftp.arin.net/pub/stats/arin/delegated-arin-latest>

that'd make this sort of thing simpler over all.

> CI allocations:
> 2000: 14 prefixes, 14 /24s
> 2001: 0 prefixes, 0 /24s
> 2002: 0 prefixes, 0 /24s
> 2003: 14 prefixes, 35 /24s
> 2004: 12 prefixes, 40 /24s
> 2005: 6 prefixes, 10 /24s
> 2006: 4 prefixes, 12 /24s
> 2007: 8 prefixes, 20 /24s
> 2008: 10 prefixes, 46 /24s
> 2009: 2 prefixes, 3 /24s
> 2010: 11 prefixes, 68 /24s
> 2011: 8 prefixes, 23 /24s
> 2012TD: 1 prefixes, 4 /24s
> Total: 90 prefixes, 275 /24s
>
> IX allocations:
> 1998: 1 prefixes, 1 /24s
> 1999: 1 prefixes, 1 /24s
> 2000: 2 prefixes, 2 /24s
> 2001: 3 prefixes, 6 /24s
> 2002: 3 prefixes, 3 /24s
> 2003: 2 prefixes, 2 /24s
> 2004: 6 prefixes, 6 /24s
> 2005: 2 prefixes, 2 /24s
> 2006: 2 prefixes, 2 /24s
> 2007: 5 prefixes, 15 /24s
> 2008: 2 prefixes, 3 /24s
> 2009: 7 prefixes, 12 /24s
> 2010: 3 prefixes, 4 /24s
> 2011: 7 prefixes, 8 /24s
> 2012TD: 5 prefixes, 5 /24s
> Total: 51 prefixes, 72 /24s
> (There were 5 IX allocation that did show up in ARIN Whois, there are 56
> allocation on the web page above)
>
> Grand Total (CI+IX): 141 prefixes, 347 /24s

there doesn't appear to be much pattern directly in the allocation rates :(

I still think the largest easy driver is gTLD growth, and that's not
going to be very predictable either. Enlarging the hold-out for CI to
a /15 means we can grow 1.5x today's current allocations before we
have to dip back into the larger 'free' pool. I'm not sure that a /15
is enough, I also don't see an easy way to predict what would be big
enough.

-chris