[arin-ppml] Draft Policy ARIN-2012-6: Revising Section 4.4 C/I Reserved Pool Size

[Christopher Morrow]

On Tue, Oct 16, 2012 at 4:33 PM, Christopher Morrow
<christopher.morrow at gmail.com> wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 16, 2012 at 4:01 PM, Christopher Morrow
> <christopher.morrow at gmail.com> wrote:
>> On Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 4:18 PM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:
>>> On Sep 20, 2012, at 3:42 PM, Chris Grundemann <cgrundemann at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Thu, Sep 20, 2012 at 1:19 PM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:
>>>>> On Sep 20, 2012, at 3:08 PM, Chris Grundemann <cgrundemann at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> Are statistics for the number of Critical Infrastructure requests and
>>>>>> assignments over the past year (or longer) easily accessible
>>>>>> somewhere?
>>>>>
>>>>> The raw data on the assignments made is available here:
>>>>>
>>>>> <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/micro_allocations.html>
>>>>
>>>> Is there data on _when_ they were handed out? E.g. How many
>>>> assignments were made each month, and each year, for the past 12-18
>>>> months and 3-5 years?
>>>
>>> We haven't traditionally produced summary statistics for the critical infrastructure
>>> assignments, but they do appear both in Whois as well as the "Raw Historical Delegation"
>>> files <https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/rir.html> with the date of assignment.
>>>
>>> Do you want ARIN to produce a historic summary of these assignments?
>>
>>
>> for y in 08 09 10 11 12; do
>>   for m in January Februrary March April May June July August
>> September October November December ; do
>>      echo -n "20${y}-${m}: "
>>      wget -4qO -
>> http://lists.arin.net/pipermail/arin-issued/20${y}-${m}.txt.gz | gzip
>> -dc | egrep '^Add 19[92]\.' 2 > /dev/null| wc -l
>>     done
>>   done
>> then just total things up...
>>
>> 2008-December: 0
>> 2009-January: 0
>> 2009-Februrary: 0
>
> o a polite caller notes I mis spelled 'February'
> o a polite caller notes I am counting all allocations in the 2 /8's
> where CI allocations are currently being made, these are not actually
> all CI allocations. (every square is a rectangle, not every rectangle
> is a square)
> o it's probably sensible to wrap the lines with some logic to
> summarize how many /24's per this really is (and how much of the /8
> was allocated in this period)
>
> -chris
>
>> 2009-March: 53
>> 2009-April: 17
>> 2009-May: 0
>> 2009-June: 2
>> 2009-July: 0
>> 2009-August: 0
>> 2009-September: 0
>> 2009-October: 0
>> 2009-November: 0
>> 2009-December: 0
>> 2010-January: 0
>> 2010-Februrary: 0
>> 2010-March: 2
>> 2010-April: 37
>> 2010-May: 48
>> 2010-June: 55
>> 2010-July: 47
>> 2010-August: 49
>> 2010-September: 52
>> 2010-October: 40
>> 2010-November: 45
>> 2010-December: 39
>> 2011-January: 45
>> 2011-Februrary: 0
>> 2011-March: 41
>> 2011-April: 29
>> 2011-May: 59
>> 2011-June: 63
>> 2011-July: 50
>> 2011-August: 71
>> 2011-September: 53
>> 2011-October: 81
>> 2011-November: 53
>> 2011-December: 61
>> 2012-January: 66
>> 2012-Februrary: 0
>> 2012-March: 93
>> 2012-April: 89
>> 2012-May: 101
>> 2012-June: 84
>> 2012-July: 83
>> 2012-August: 84
>> 2012-September: 39
>> 2012-October: 8
>>
>> $ awk '{tot=tot+$2} END{print tot}'  /tmp/x
>> 1739

fixing february: 1,892 - allocations from these 2 /8s.
Total /24 count: 10,832

1/12th or so of the 2 /8's? I'm not sure how much of the 2 /8's were
allocated prior to the start of this data though.

Rates over time of /24 equivalent allocations:
2008-December: 0
2009-January: 0
2009-February: 92
2009-March: 278
2009-April: 96
2009-May: 0
2009-June: 17
2009-July: 0
2009-August: 0
2009-September: 0
2009-October: 0
2009-November: 0
2009-December: 0
2010-January: 0
2010-February: 3
2010-March: 5
2010-April: 184
2010-May: 256
2010-June: 293
2010-July: 256
2010-August: 257
2010-September: 332
2010-October: 206
2010-November: 260
2010-December: 212
2011-January: 272
2011-February: 376
2011-March: 210
2011-April: 151
2011-May: 328
2011-June: 350
2011-July: 256
2011-August: 357
2011-September: 280
2011-October: 430
2011-November: 301
2011-December: 284
2012-January: 332
2012-February: 308
2012-March: 432
2012-April: 371
2012-May: 409
2012-June: 359
2012-July: 848
2012-August: 532
2012-September: 771
2012-October: 128

and a pretty graph of the above:
<http://goo.gl/fD1oE>

In general, for the allocations in the 2 /8's in question it seems
there's an upwards push for this sort of space (although it's not
clear if the allocations here are for CI or other things). I wonder
how the data looks for overall allocations across the same time?

I think I can make a similar graph for all data...let's see :)
-chris

>> So, since 12/2008 ARIN has allocated ~1750 allocations (not making the
>> distinction between /21 and /24... could though easily enough, want
>> that?). We're proposing to set aside 512 /24's ... which PROBABLY
>> would last less than 1.5yrs at current rates (*which seem to be
>> accelerating)
>>
>> I think without numbers on the larger growth users (generic-tld
>> people) it's not wise to pick a number so small.
>>
>>>
>>> John Curran
>>> President and CEO
>>> ARIN
>>>
>>>
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