[arin-ppml] quantitative study of IPv4 address market

[Owen DeLong]

On Aug 31, 2012, at 15:18 , John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:

> On Aug 31, 2012, at 4:50 PM, Milton L Mueller <mueller at syr.edu> wrote:
> 
>> This report is probably of interest to this list: 
>> http://www.internetgovernance.org/2012/08/31/the-first-study-of-the-emerging-market-for-ipv4-numbers/ 
> 
> Milton's blog is having a bit of problems with comments
> (apparently only my comments, for reasons unknown...!)
> 
> Hence, here's a copy of my reply to the study blog entry
> for the PPML readers.
> 
> /John
> 
> ===
> 
> Milton - 
> 
> Thank you for conducting this study into the emergent IPv4 transfer market...  Such academic efforts are important in helping everyone better understand this important topic.   The principle conclusion of the paper (that being "there is a thriving and growing market for IPv4 number blocks") is definitely true and needs repeating for those who might not have heard by now.
> 
> I will note that popularity of buyers in the ARIN region is actually very simply explained by the fact that service providers, like all businesses, want certainty in their operations, and continuing to predicate growth on receiving 3-month-at-a-time allocations from the IPv4 free pool in the face of imminent depletion doesn't provide that business certainty.  While there has been enormous progress getting content to IPv6 (and now the migration of the mobile providers based on that content being available), each service provider must develop their own transition plans, and the ability to receive 2 years worth of IPv4 space via transfer provides reassurance to providers while they work on this transition.
> 

Only so long as supplies last. When the supply of readily reallocated IP addresses begins to dwindle, we will again repeat the same exercise in uncertainty, but with much higher costs and much more uncertainty for those still attempting to cling to IPv4.

Owen