[arin-ppml] ARIN-prop-156 Update 8.3 to allow inter-RIR transfers

[Paul Vixie]

On Thu, 25 Aug 2011 09:43:32 +1000
Paul Wilson <pwilson at apnic.net> wrote:

> ...
> I would point out two factors here that I believe are uncontroversial:
> 
> 1. A smooth global IPv6 transition will rely on a critical mass of
> movement across the Internet; 2. No individual party is strongly
> motivated to move until they experience a shortage of IPv4 addresses.

i think "smooth global IPv6 transition" is off the table.  we're having
a rough, not a smooth, transition.  on the assumption that you don't
mind me interpreting this as "non-disastrous global IPv6 transition"
there is still something to talk about.

as to your #2, which occasions this response, i am fascinated by your
word "strongly".  much of the infrastructure used for most of the
interesting content is fixed in its order of magnitude -- it grows
slowly enough that a limited supply of IPv4 through a transfer market
might satisfy that growth.  where the great mass of recent greenfield
IPv4 has gone is the access side not the content side.

a "weak" rather than strong motivation would be "when other people,
whom one's customers would like to exchange traffic with, experience a
shortage of IPv4 addresses."  we know this won't happen, since access
side providers will use transition methods to ensure that their
customers will always be able to access all existing content whether
that content is dual stacked or not.

i think this means i consider your #2 to be uncontroversial (as you
say) but also non sequitur.  sooner or later the transfer market will
be unable to provide new /13's for access side growth, and the planners
in those networks are going to Take All Necessary Steps to ensure that
their revenue growth is unaffected by that cliff.  whereas on the
content side a small but continuous supply of transfer market IPv4
address space may prevent any motivation either strong or weak from
occurring there.

only if other people were willing to face into a revenue growth abyss
by not adopting transition strategies would any one of us face the
"strong motivation" you describe.  none of us can invest in other
people's networks, only in our own.  we could give up some revenue
growth as a way to influence deployment of certain technologies within
other people's networks, but that might seem irresponsible in the eyes
of one's shareholders.
-- 
Paul Vixie, ISC
(not speaking for ARIN BoT)