[arin-ppml] What do you think of 2011-1 (now in Last Call)?
Joe St Sauver
joe at oregon.uoregon.edu
Thu Nov 10 12:04:13 EST 2011
I oppose 2011-1.
-- While I strongly support deployment of IPv6, I believe that IPv4 will
continue to play an important role for years, if not decades, to come.
-- I recognize and acknowledge the short term needs that exist in some
regions for more IPv4 address space, most notably APNIC. I'm mindful
of the NRO address reports showing APNIC demand for 5+ /8's in '08,
5+ /8's in '09, 7+ /8's in '10, and 6+ /8's in '11 -- I'd expect that
if the space were to be available, APNIC would likely be able to
justify and use a comparable number of additional /8's in the coming
While estimates vary when it comes to usable residual address space
per region, even if all residual ARIN space were to be transfered
out toward APNIC's immediate requirement, it would likely not even
meet one additional year's need. Thus, any transfer scheme would
represent purely pallative short term aid for APNIC region users. I'm
sure the additional address space would be appreciated, but it wouldn't
fix the fundamentally un-meetable demand for new address space from
-- I *also* recognize that there are great disparities in the allocation
of IPv4 address space relative to regional populations.
When I last did the math, I saw (sorry if you're using non-monospace
Region Population IPv4 /8's Ratio of %'s
Asia 4,121,097 60.3% 44.24 31.6% 0.54
Africa 1,009,893 14.7% 2.29 1.6% 0.112
Europe 732,206 10.7% 31.42 22.5% 2.103
L America 528,418 8.5% 6.28 4.5% 0.529
N America 348,360 5.1% 27.65 19.8% 3.882
Oceania 35,387 0.5% (part of APNIC)
Total: 6,829,360 139.85
[Population in thousands, mid year 2009 estimates from the UN; address
usage from www.nro.net/statistics (Sept 2011).]
If everything was proportionate, you'd see a 1.0 ratio for each
region. Obviously, the actual ratios aren't very close to those values.
In particular, obviously North America and Europe have more address
space than they should, if everything was strictly proportionate.
In considering that table, note that while APNIC has one of the lower
ratios (0.54), it actually already has the largest number of reported
But also note that Africa, with the second largest tranche of the world's
population, has only a little over *two* /8's, or roughly 11% of the
number of /8's one might expect.
-- Thus, my overarching concern would be that if additional IPv4 resources
are transfered out of the ARIN region *now*, in an attempt to meet the
short term demand for additional resources in the APNIC region (which,
recall, already has over 44 /8's), there will quickly be no IPv4
resources available for transfer to the AFRINIC region in the
*intermediate* term (when that region finally is able to participate
more fully in the Internet community as a result of
just-recently-improving transoceanic fiber availability).
-- I also understand and sympathize with the desire to "end the suffering"
and just "finish using up" what IPv4 address space remains, thereby
forcing the reality of IPv6 upon a reluctant audience, however I'm
not willing to force a precipitous exhaustion scheme just to "get it
finally over-and-done-with." Suicide pacts don't make for good public
Thanks for considering this input,
Joe St Sauver, Ph.D. (joe at oregon.uoregon.edu)
Disclaimer: opinions expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect
the opinion of any organization or other entity.
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