[arin-ppml] IPv4 Transfer Policy Change to Keep Whois Accurate

[Mike Burns]

Good Morning Owen,

>> Like those unfortunate souls who will find themselves behind CGN will 
>> likely enrich their ISP, who can sell as many addresses into the market 
>> as he can without losing too many customers who demand >>non-CGN access.

>So you are saying that your proposal will increase the deployment of LSN... 
>Yet another reason to oppose.

No, I am saying the deployment of LSN is likely to happen, and when it does 
an uncertain number of ip addresses may be freed up to supply the transfer 
market.


>> Or even the deployment of plain old NAT could free up addresses which are 
>> currnently being  advertised now for sale later.
>

>So you are saying that your proposal will increase the deployment of NAT... 
>Yet another reason to oppose.

I am saying that your "proof" of the size of the transfer pool is not valid 
because you assume 100% efficiency in routed space.


>> The pool of buyers is known to be monotonically increasing and ARIN's 
>> average issuance
>> of ~190,000 IPv4 /24s each year by ARIN would indicate an annual market 
>> demand for 25%
>> of the maximum possible pool from which to develop such a market (roughly 
>> 12 /8s)
>
>> Therefore, even if we assume that all possible addresses will come on the 
>> market with
>> your policy, the supply will be gone in 4 years or less. Any churn beyond 
>> that would leave
>> a need-gap behind unless it is the result of successful abandonment of 
>> IPv4. At the point
>> where organizations can begin successful abandonment of IPv4 altogether, 
>> the market
>> will invariably collapse anyway.
>
> And you believe this and still think there is a danger from speculators? 
> When the market is at most 4 years in duration and then subject to 
> collapse due to IPv6?
>

>Yes. I think that if you open it up to speculation, the duration becomes 
>much closer to 4 minutes
>than 4 years.

>Owen

Owen, any single entity is limited to a /12. I trust the ARIN staff to be 
able to determine whether the entity is a sham company, and even by the size 
of your limited pool, a /12 can't corner the market. So maybe we can at 
least temper the fear that a speculator would enter into a 4 minute market.

Regards,
Mike