[arin-ppml] End non-public IPv4 assignments?

Leo Bicknell bicknell at ufp.org
Thu Jan 27 08:49:38 EST 2011

In a message written on Thu, Jan 27, 2011 at 01:19:22AM -0500, William Herrin wrote:
> We're approaching a period of time between v4 free pool depletion and
> v6 ubiquity during which IPv4 addressing will become a zero-sum game.
> The nature of a zero-sum game is that there is *always* someone left
> holding the short stick. Without exception. The sooner the unlucky
> ones know who they're going to be, the sooner they can begin
> mitigating the damage. Maybe even get ahead of the curve.
> I may not have the answer, but it seems to me that as a community we
> ought to get serious about the question.

Reading what you wrote I get the impression you think that 90% of
the folks will have IPv4 addresses, and some poor 10% will be left
with the short stick and we need to get to telling those folks
"we're sorry, but you still get the short stick".

The reality is that maybe on the high side 25% will have the IPv4
space they need 12 months from now, and 75% will have the "short
stick".  Go out to 36 months from now and 1% will have the IPv4
they need, and 99% will be left with the proverbal "short stick".
Because it's a fixed size pool there is almost nothing that can be
done to change the percentages, all of the proposals are a rearranging
of the ordering which move the time lines forward for some, and
backwards for others.  We still end up at the same point.

In short, I can tell you who the unlucky ones are going to be right
now.  You.  As in anyone reading this e-mail.  Please go get to
mitigating, by which I mean deploying IPv6.

       Leo Bicknell - bicknell at ufp.org - CCIE 3440
        PGP keys at http://www.ufp.org/~bicknell/
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