[arin-ppml] End non-public IPv4 assignments?

[William Herrin]

On Thu, Jan 27, 2011 at 8:49 AM, Leo Bicknell <bicknell at ufp.org> wrote:
> Reading what you wrote I get the impression you think that 90% of
> the folks will have IPv4 addresses, and some poor 10% will be left
> with the short stick and we need to get to telling those folks
> "we're sorry, but you still get the short stick".
>
> The reality is that maybe on the high side 25% will have the IPv4
> space they need 12 months from now, and 75% will have the "short
> stick".  Go out to 36 months from now and 1% will have the IPv4
> they need, and 99% will be left with the proverbal "short stick".

Leo,

My crystal ball is no clearer than yours, but if you want my
prediction it's this: either there will be an IP address market or
we'll decide to reclaim addresses which we determine aren't being put
to "good enough use." There's too much money in play; the notion that
the folks with uses that justify spending money won't be able to get
addresses from somewhere is untenable, and if we're fool enough to
attempt it we'll be promptly smacked down.

This suggests the process will look something like "musical chairs,"
only with each cycle another use case for IPv4 addresses will drop
out.

The thing is, musical chairs is a very destructive game. The losers
are sidelined very suddenly and everybody is a potential loser in
every round of the game. On the other hand, if you know in advance
that you're out in round 6 then you don't have to panic and spend
effort staying in rounds 1 through 5 and you have all five rounds to
prepare your plan B for when you're out in round 6. The process
becomes orderly, predictable. Less expensive.

Regards,
Bill Herrin


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