[arin-ppml] projections

[Chris Grundemann]

On Wed, Feb 2, 2011 at 13:23, Lee Howard <spiffnolee at yahoo.com> wrote:
> Silence on PPML for two days?
> Nothing going on that people want to talk about on PPML?
>
> For those who missed it, this chart is interesting:
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/rir.jpg

A note on that graph from the horse's mouth that is worth considering,
especially as it relates to inter-RIR transfer policy:

"This is a different graph - it is a probabilistic graph that shows
the predicted month when the RIR will be down to its last /8 policy
(whatever that policy may be), and the relative probability that the
event will occur in that particular month.

The assumption behind this graph is that the barricades will go up
across the regions and each region will work from its local address
pools and service only its local client base, and that as each region
gets to its last /8 policy the applicants will not transfer their
demand to those regions where addresses are still available. Its not
possible to quantify how (in)accurate this assumption may be, so
beyond the prediction of the first exhaustion point (which is at this
stage looking more likely to occur in July 2011 than not) the
predictions for the other RIRs are highly uncertain."

http://mailman.nanog.org/pipermail/nanog/2011-February/031788.html

~Chris

> But I caution readers to temper it with this chart:
> http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/predict.png
>
> (i.e., accelerating demand is likely to trigger those events sooner)
>
> Lee
>
>
>
>
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