[arin-ppml] Do we have a fundamental conflict in theregionalgoalsfor number resource management?

Mike Burns mike at nationwideinc.com
Fri Apr 29 13:58:02 EDT 2011

Thanks, Bill, for providing the missing expertise.

I guess if BGP prefix size is growing slower than Moore's law, that we 
should be able to process that growth organically over time.

I mean a database of 500K records is not really huge in today's computer 
I would think the big iron routers which require a full BGP table could 
manipulate that database very swiftly, even if it doubles in size.
But I am out of my depth here.

I do understand the concern in the network operators group, and the 
relationship between minimum allocation block size and de-aggregation.

In a free trading environment, I would expect the value of blocks smaller 
than a /24 to be far lower than larger blocks due not to ARIN policy, but to 
network operator policy.

After all, what good is an address if it can't be routed?

But I can see the development of aggregation entities with pools of 
addresses who make money on aggregation services. As in, I have 4 /25 
networks. Can I turn them into you in exchange for a single /24? And the 
aggregator transfers a separate full /24 puts the /25s in inventory until he 
can purchase the other half of the /24s which would allow him to aggregate 
them from /25s back up to /24s, or until such time that the network operator 
community decides to generally accept /25 advertisements.

And providers could still aggregate the announcements they make, right? If 
an operator had two clients who both wanted to advertise a /25 which is 
contiguous with the other /25, could the network operator aggregate them 
into a single /24 advertisement?

Do we know whether APNIC's no-justification policy has had any effect on BGP 
table size?
I expect it's too early to tell.



Hi Mike,

If I remember correctly from the last time I ran the numbers, the
tech's capacity per cost is compounding at around 40% annually while
the BGP table size is compounding at 20% to 25% annually. Note that
BGP prefix consumption is not growing linearly. It is compounding too,
but at a slower rate than Moore's Law. Those numbers have been more or
less stable across about 15 years. However, in the cost-capacity
calculation there is some intersection between the table size and
sustainable packets per second switching rates. Peak consumption in
packets per second has also been compounding.

Bill Herrin

William D. Herrin ................ herrin at dirtside.com bill at herrin.us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/>
Falls Church, VA 22042-3004 

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