[arin-ppml] IPV6, Not yet (OT)

Owen DeLong owen at delong.com
Thu Apr 14 22:59:42 EDT 2011

>>> Because within 3-5 years the motion picture association will not be
>>> releasing anything on DVD anymore.  Partly due to the resolution but
>>> mainly because CSS was cracked years ago and you can rip a DVD to your
>>> hard disk, while with BluRay they still hold out hope that they will be
>>> able to some day release a BluRay encryption scheme that Slysoft won't be able to crack.
>> BluRay has already been cracked.
> BluRay allows for future encryption so all the MPA has to do is dream up a new encryption standard and start making disks with it, then have all the BluRay manufacturers push firmware updates to their players.  And they are doing that all of the time, I probably get about 2 updates
> a month on my LG.  The MPA is under the impression that the problem of
> secure disc encryption can be solved if they throw enough money at it,
> and they are busy doing that.  You don't actually think that the MPA
> will ever come to believe that their millions of dollars aren't up to
> the task of going against a dedicated cracker in his basement, do you?
That ship sailed when they started making non-upgradeable BD players.
Nothing would create backlash against DRM like suddenly having 50%
of the players on the market unable to play new content after deprecating
the last DRM-free (mostly) technology.

>> I doubt they will be able to deprecate
>> DVD as fast as you think. I have enough BD players that I don't care if they
>> do, but, I don't think they can. For one thing, there are still a lot of laptops
>> being made with DVD drives and not BD drives.
> Look at what is happening with Redbox, Best Buy, etc. etc.  They release
> BluRay with a DVD included in the box.  So the people with only DVD drives buy the BluRay disc, thinking that it's better to have the new
> technology -and- the old technology even if they can't play the new
> technology right away.
At least in California, talking to the managers I know at Best Buys,
people aren't buying those unless they're also buying BluRay
titles that don't have DVDs in them. The DVD-only crowd isn't
buying the BluRay technology for more $$ even if they can still
put the DVD in their DVD player, too.

> Most people buying a movie are buying it because they think they will keep it forever.  If they wanted to get it for just a cheap thrill
> then toss it aside they would rent or netflix it.  I guarentee that everyone walking out of a Best Buy with Star Wars on BluRay thinks that
> this is the very, very last time I will ever buy Star Wars, that I'm
> done with lining Lucas's pockets, and I can throw away my vhs/vcd/laserdisc/dvd that at the time I bought them were gonna be the very
> last copy of that movie that I'm going to have the rest of my life.
I tend to doubt it, and, I'm frankly not sure I will buy Star Wars
on BluRay. LOTR Directors Cut? yes. Star Wars? Not so sure.

LOTR was filmed in high enough resolution that watching it on BD
actually adds to the experience. Star Wars CGI and other special
effects weren't originally done at much more than 480p, so, I'm 
not sure taking it to 1080 adds anything but noise and artifact
to the experience.

> Then 20 years from now they will be doing the exact same thing, and
> buying that data crystal that is going to be the very last copy of
> Star Wars, and throwing away their BluRay that this year was going to
> be the very last copy.
I'm skeptical of this claim. I know a lot of people who still own LPs
and say you can pry their turntable from their cold dead fingers and
CDs just don't sound as good, not even the SACDs.

I recognize that nobody is pressing records any more (though there
have been a few occasional throwbacks released in recent years,

> So yeah, I think they will deprecate it a lot faster than you think.
> They have to.  They got to get rid of it so that they can get everyone
> on BluRay so they can get rid of that and make them all buy the same
> movie again on the next format in another decade. ;-)
Yeah, I don't think that's a very workable business model, actually.
I know a lot of people that are not planning on buying even LOTR on
BluRay when it comes out.


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