[arin-ppml] Do we have a fundamental conflict in theregionalgoalsfor number resource management?

[David Farmer]

On 4/29/11 12:58 CDT, Mike Burns wrote:
> But I can see the development of aggregation entities with pools of
> addresses who make money on aggregation services. As in, I have 4 /25
> networks. Can I turn them into you in exchange for a single /24? And the
> aggregator transfers a separate full /24 puts the /25s in inventory
> until he can purchase the other half of the /24s which would allow him
> to aggregate them from /25s back up to /24s, or until such time that the
> network operator community decides to generally accept /25 advertisements.

Have you run the numbers on the churn rate you would need to have any 
probability getting aggregate-able blocks to come available in an 
acceptable return-on-investment timetable for a commercial entity to be 
willing to operate that kind of business model?

I work for an organization that received what will be its last 
allocation of IPv4 addresses almost 19 years ago, it is only two days 
away.  We have been actively recycling out of our 5 /16 blocks for more 
than 10 years.   I can tell you, even in a much smaller address space 
and with the ability to actually sometimes force readdressing, 
re-aggregating blocks is extremely hard to do.

I find it extremely hard to believe there is a viable business model for 
a commercial entity to make this happen at Internet scale, especially 
with the realistic churn rates most people expect to see.  There isn't 
going to be enough additional value created by aggregating blocks to 
justify the loss of potential revenue from holding on to the blocks too 
long.  Yes, it will happen, but not reliably enough to make a business 
model out of it.

Additionally, the costs of disaggregation are too dispersed to find a 
way to capture any of the potential Internet-wide cost savings from 
aggregating blocks.  So, I don't see how the economics of a business 
model based on aggregation of blocks would work.  Maybe, I'm missing 
something. :)


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David Farmer               Email:farmer at umn.edu
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