[arin-ppml] Fraud reporting and self-incrimination

[Mark Andrews]

In message <AANLkTik3KvoYjAO5WyHr9uvWLw0FXWEYnQzQOCkt1Z3_ at mail.gmail.com>, Matt
hew Petach writes:
> On Sat, Nov 6, 2010 at 11:48 PM, Owen DeLong <owen at delong.com> wrote:
> > On Nov 6, 2010, at 1:52 AM, Ronald F. Guilmette wrote:
> ...
> >> We have, I think, a model for how a mass technology transition like this
> >> can be pulled off with a reasonable level of success and without too
> >> awfully much confusion and pain, i.e. the transition, in North America,
> >> from analog to digital TV. =A0In that transition also, we had producers
> >> and consumers and a massive chicken & egg problem, but somehow it all
> >> worked. =A0I think it worked for one simple reason... somebody, and I'm
> >> not even sure who (the government?) put their foot down at some point
> >> and said ``OK, after this date certain, EVERYBODY is going to get onto
> >> the new standard, and to make sure that we get even the lazy, and the
> >> stupid, and the die-hards to do that, we are going to actually pull
> >> the plug on the old system and SHUT THE DAMN THING DOWN ENTIRELY as of
> >> date X.''
> >>
> > The main reason that transition wasn't so painful is because regulators
> > were able to force the largest dependencies to switch. That doesn't apply
> > here.
> >
> > The set top box program from NTIA was an absolute disaster of epoch
> > proportion in terms of the consumer confusion and irritation created,
> > but, $40 STBs are a pretty easy thing for the majority of consumers
> > to eat anyway, so, at the end of the day, the coupon problems were
> > mostly noise.
> >
> > The IPv6 transition, unfortunately, isn't as easy as putting a $40
> > STB in front of every computer, so, the CPE solution space is
> > also different.
> >
> > I don't think your model fits as well as you think it does, and, we don't
> > have time to apply it at this point, anyway.
> 
> Over the five year period from 2005 to 2010 when the switchover (mostly)
> happened (there are still analog stations running, grandfathered in, which
> you can read about in the wikipedia page at
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DTV_transition_in_the_United_States  )
> the US government *directly* spent over $2 billion dollars on coupons
> for conversion boxes, and spent an estimated $1 billion more in the
> overall public awareness campaign, equipment upgrades, assistance
> programs for public television stations, etc.
> 
> I imagine if the government had stepped forward with $3 billion in
> money five years ago, and started a massive public awareness
> and education campaign, including coupons for v4-v6 translator
> appliances to go into the home to support legacy gear, we would
> be in a much better position than we are now...and that's just for
> one country.  The rest of the ARIN region would still have to come
> up with their own funding, let alone the rest of the world.
> 
> >> For whatever reasons... and I don't even know the reasons because I
> >> wansn't in the room at the time... the decision was made that this
> >> would NOT be the way the v4->v6 transition would be handled... no
> >> big brother coming in and pointing a gun at all our heads, no date
> >> certain for the ``universal'' changeover, and most importantly, no
> >> committment by anybody, as far as I know, to turn down and turn off
> >> IPv4.
> >>
> > Note: At the end of the last deadline, the FCC tried to get the broadcast=
> ers
> > to accept yet another extension to the deadline and the broadcasters basi=
> cally
> > said "Look... You set a date by which we had to be on digital. You don't =
> have
> > anything that legally requires us to keep running analog and we're stoppi=
> ng
> > because it's costing too much to keep it running."
> >
> > So... While regulation and a date certain got the ball rolling, it was ac=
> tually
> > the industry decision not to keep spending money on the legacy that
> > actually completed the transition and turned off analog. The FCC actually
> > wanted to extend the date.
> 
> Look, that's all nice and whatever, but THERE IS NO WORLD GOVERNMENT.
> 
> There's nobody out there to say "look, planet, we're all going to flip
> from v4 to v6
> tomorrow, and since we're your planetary government, you have no choice to
> comply."  Look at
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_television_transition
> There's countries that won't be converted to digital TV until *2030*.
> 
> Realize that the IPv4 to IPv6 conversion will be in a similar state, where =
> some
> areas convert quickly, and others linger for a long, long time.  We don't h=
> old
> up innovation in digital television because Cambodia is still 20 years away
> from it; nor did Nokia wait to make DTVs until 2010 because the US hadn't
> converted, even though Finland had gone all digital in 2007.  Different are=
> as
> move at different paces, and we're not going to stop innovating on IPv6 just
> because some areas are still using IPv4.  However, the need for growing the
> IPv4 presence dwindles over time, as the bulk of the traffic will move to I=
> Pv6,
> and thus the pressure on v4 address resources also decreases; at some point,
> it will be like IPv6 was five years ago, where you could only get it by spe=
> cial
> request.
> 
> *heh*  In fact, I can imagine Owen, ten years from now, registering
> tunnelbroker4.net
> and tunnelbroker4.org, and providing legacy IPv4 tunnel services for the cr=
> usty,
> crufty few who live on the bleeding, trailing edge of the Internet.  ;-)
> 
> Matt

Except it will be AFTR and a DHCP6 option for those that still need
the service.  Your ISP will out source their IPv4 connectivity and
it will work reasonably well similar to HE's tunnel broker service. 

You won't even notice when your ISP moves you. :-)

Mark
-- 
Mark Andrews, ISC
1 Seymour St., Dundas Valley, NSW 2117, Australia
PHONE: +61 2 9871 4742                 INTERNET: marka at isc.org