[arin-ppml] IPv4 runout happens when the first ISP deploys CGN+IPv6*

[Lee Howard]

I agree with you, but want to extend the context.



----- Original Message ----
> From: Jason Schiller <schiller at uu.net>

> IPv6-only.  This date is shortly after the frist RIR depletion,  possibly 6 
> months.
> 
> we will all be  forced to use transition technologies 
> like NAT 64 & DNS64 or NAT 46 and  DNS46, or lots of layers of CGN NAT4444.  
> New content, or growth of 
> existing sites, would require IPv4  addresses as the majority of traffic 
> would be IPv4.

Content does not only live on "servers."  

Once ISPs can't get new IPv4 addresses, they may pay for transfers for
hosted servers, but access customers will get CGN and hopefully IPv6.
If one of those customers is a p2p seeder, or is your online gaming buddy
(through any game console), he is unreachable via IPv4.

In other words, your flag day is not the day you run out of IPv4.
*Your runout date is the date your customers want to reach a user at an
ISP using CGN+IPv6.

> Some have suggested that the  pricing of the IPv4 market will solve this 
> problem.  The problem with  that approach is those that have calculated 
> that they plan to purchase IPv4  addresses will still have a long lag time 
> to implement IPv6 once they  realize that IPv4 addresses are priced above 
> the cost of IPv6 deployment, or  entirely out of thier reach.  

Yes.  Efficient market pricing means you don't know you can't afford it
until you can't afford it, which may be two years too late to start your
IPv6 deployment.

Lee