[arin-ppml] [arin-discuss] x-small IPv4 ISPs going to IPv6

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

Owen,

Now just hold on there.

This $833,000 figure is POTENTIAL revenue.
You cannot have a "revenue impact" on revenue you have not collected
and are not expected to collect.  Further ARIN is a non-profit.  It is
ILLEGAL for it to NOT hand that money back to the customer base - and
it must do it by LOWERING FEES.

   Your terminology is ASSUMING that if the waiver expires in 2012 that
all of the x-small IPv4 holders will pony up the $1000 for IPv6.  If
that happens ARIN realizes an extra $833,000 - and any waiver we do
would then have an $833,000 "revenue impact"

   But the liklihood is they will NOT pony that money up.  Thus ARIN
is NEVER going to realize that extra $833,000 and thus cannot "lose"
it if we put in a waiver.

   If you really want to know the true revenue impact in 2012 then 
here's how to find it out.

fist, you have to ask the ARIN staff to break the 866 x-small ISP's down 
into ISP's that have x-small Legacy holdings and thus currently pay 
-nothing- to ARIN and x-small ISP's that are paying the $1250.00 a year.

Reason being is that the freeloaders ARE NEVER going to go to IPv6
unless we waive it down to nothing for them.  And I don't think that
ANYONE (except for the Legacy holders) wants to perpetuate the "free
if you got your IP before the Dinosaurs lived" business in IPv6.

Any waiver of 2011 and 2012 would ONLY affect the x-small IPv4 holders
paying the $1250.00 right now - by definition, NON legacy x-small IPv4
holders.

Secondly, even with a modification of the current waiver to 50% for 2011
and 50% for 2012 for the Small /32 IPv6 category, (which is what -I-
have been advocating) a lot of those x-small ISPs will STILL NOT go to 
IPv6 before 2012.  Thus the only "revenue impacts" would be for the ones 
that WENT FOR IT.

If 76 out of the 866 x-small ISP's took advantage of a 50% waiver in 
2011 and 2012 the unrealized income to ARIN would be $42,000 in 2011
and $76,000 in 2012

Lastly, there is also the chance to phase this in much more gradually.

To do this we have to face the following facts:

The inevitability of IPv6 means the x-small ISPs are eventually going
to all have to be paying the $2250 for the Small IPv6 allocation.  This
means the Legacy x-small holders who are paying nothing now, are going 
to have to pay the $2250 and the non-legacy x-smalls are going to have 
to pay an extra $1000

This represents a permanent income increase to ARIN.  You have named off
a figure of .8 million a year.  OK whatever.  I think it will be higher
but without x-small Legacy holder figures I'll go with the .8 million.

Right now ARIN doesen't have this .8 million - but when the day comes
that the x-smalls HAVE to have IPv6 then it WILL have the .8 million.

Let's rub the crystal ball a moment and assume that this date will be
2015 - 3 years after the "end of virgin RIR assignments"

If the waiver is allowed to disappear then few x-smalls will go to
IPv6 before this "must have" date.  That represents an .8 mil a year
loss to ARIN commencing from 2012 to the "must have" date of 2015
- using your logic of "it's ours before we have it" financial analysis.
:-)

ARIN can say "well if we drop the waiver to 40% how many additonal
x-smalls will sign up and what money do we make"

These are the same "what-if" games that retailers play when they
set store "It's the blow-out 50% off sale" prices.  I don't have
experience with those but they obviously work.  The additional
revenue ARIN collects must go towards lowering fees - thus if
we waive it now, and more x-smalls buy in, then the price they
buy-in at drops.

Obviously this all goes away on the "must have" date.  If the
x-smalls can't hack it then, then they never will.  But until that
date, the pricing for this category should be set in a manner as
to encourage the x-smalls to get into IPv6 as much as possible.

Ted

On 4/30/2010 9:17 AM, Owen DeLong wrote:
>
>
> As a data point, there are currently 866* x-small IPv4 ISP organizations in the ARIN region.
>
> There are a total of 3,562* ISP organizations in the ARIN region (including IPv4 and IPv6).
>
> x-small IPv4 providers as such, constitute about 1/4 of the total ARIN ISP constituency.
>
> The maximum revenue impact of an IPv6 waiver for them (removing the $1,000 surcharge
> for IPv6 /32 pricing) would be $833,000 per year, increasing as the number of organizations
> affected by the waiver increased.
>
> This information is provided strictly as a data point and not in the interests of pushing
> the discussion in either direction.
>
> Owen
>
>
> *The data I used to produce these numbers comes from ARIN staff and is current as of
> earlier April 29, 2010. ARIN will be publishing the data to their statistics page in the next few
> days. Please don't blame staff for the publication delay. I asked for the numbers late
> last night and they have been extremely responsive in getting the data to me and have
> taken the additional initiative to publish it as quickly as they can within their process.
>
>
>
>
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