[arin-ppml] v4 to v6 obstacles

[Lee Dilkie]

Matthew Kaufman wrote:
> Owen DeLong wrote:
>> If the top 50 web sites make it to IPv6 dual-stack, then, that's
>> probably enough
>> for the rest of the web to decide they'll start playing catch-up,
>> frankly.  I'm not
>> sure what the critical mass of web sites and other services on
>> dual-stack is for
>> eye-ball ISPs to start issuing IPv6-only customers once IPv4 becomes
>> difficult,
>> but, I'm betting that as IPv6 deployment grows and IPv4 depletion
>> passes,
>> the difficulty of issuing IPv4 addresses will increase and the
>> threshold of
>> acceptability of IPv6-only will continue to drop until some point
>> where those
>> values meet.
> If the top 50 web sites are dual-stack, then dual-stack customers
> whose IPv4 comes via NAT will have happy ISPs, as the NAT doesn't need
> to work nearly as hard if the top 50 destinations don't go through it.
> But the ISPs will still need those NATs to reach the IPv4 Internet
> (assuming, of course, that we really ever run out of purchasable
> address space)
>
> But my prediction is that "IPv6-only" will *never* be acceptable to
> customers except in specialized circumstances (customers who are
> attaching a specific device that is IPv6-capable that they only need
> to reach from the IPv6 Internet) or if IPv6-to-IPv4 translation is
> perfected to the point where an IPv6-only user can still reach the
> entire IPv4 Internet that still exists. (But even the latter is
> painful, as to talk to your local printer you bought last year you
> need IPv4 enabled on your hosts anyway and so dual-stack from your ISP
> is really much more likely to work properly for reaching the IPv4
> Internet)
I disagree.

At some point the ISP will offer "v6 only" because most folks can get
the job done due to the number of dual-stack servers out there.

If you happen to need v4 connectivity to connect to some second rate
server that hasn't gone dual-stack, then it's very likely the ISP will
offer v4 addresses for a premium price (or/and natted already).

The minute that happens, Owen's prediction will happen very fast, a lot
of catch up will occur. What business wants to outright reject all new
net customers?

I think you can count on porn sites going dual stack quickly! ;)

-lee