[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

[tvest at eyeconomics.com]

>>> Are you in favor of changing anything at all or can you think of  
>>> no better
>>> course of action than to continue exactly as is now?
>>>
>>
>>
>> IMO, it's time now to think about what we do *beyond* the end of the
>> free pool when IPv4 addressing policy changes to a zero-sum game.
>> Where giving one org new addresses means taking them from someone
>> else.
>> The address market strategy might work. Ought to work. But we should
>> probably make some contingency plans.
>>
>
> Ration, Reclaim, Return, Reuse.
>
> Those are the alternatives to transfers based on market principles.  
> I greatly prefer the market which is why I advocated for it, but  
> policy for what to do with reclaimed space after depletion is still  
> needed and any approach to it that doesnt consist of giving it all  
> to whoever can show need will smack of rationing.
>
> And in the strictest sense of the word they are correct, it is  
> rationing. However supply and demand markets are also a form of  
> rationing, so the word in and of itself does not carry automatic  
> negative connotations.
>
> Only in a worst case scenario where neither transfers or returns are  
> meeting even a portions of needs and ipv6 is not obviating ipv4 need  
> should any attention be given to reclaimation of non-abandoned  
> resources.

Is anyone else experiencing any cognitive dissonance here?

A. No clear community consensus in favor of mitigating the impact of  
IPv4 runout; many concerns raised about the fairness of depriving  
current IPv4 holders of anything less than the max. IPv4 that they can  
justify between now and runout.

B. No significant likelihood of anything close to IPv6  
substitutability in the foreseeable future; zero probability before  
IPv4 runout.

C. No apparent acknowledgement of what this implies for anyone/ 
everything who might need -- and be able to justify -- "usable" IP  
addresses of any kind after IPv4 runout.

D.

***

IMO, this combination suggests that it would be prudent to anticipate  
that the "worst case scenario" as described above is also the highest  
probability scenario, by a wide margin.

It's still not too late for some version of prior planning...

TV