[arin-ppml] Safety net for developing economies...

RudOlph Daniel rudi.daniel at gmail.com
Fri Nov 13 10:26:48 EST 2009


This goes right to the heart of v4/v6 transistion.
If we accept what Jeff Houston at APNIC reported : that only 40 % of legacy
space is routed and that 3.6 % of allocated addresses are actually occupied
by visible hosts, then it is perhaps worth speculating that there are out
there, market makers who are laying the foundation to profit from "runout".

The ideology of stewardship of a common pool, whilst displaying good
economic and social properties, does not prevent hoarding by one party
thereby restricting use by another party.

Remember that allocation is based on case by case demonstration of need.
Such a procedure is more akin to your central city planning function and
therefore relies heavily on the accuracy of the information or should I say
the symmetry of information between the requestor and the registry. So when
you get the kind of market conditions suggested by Houston, it become a
major challenge to the case by case administration process. In other words,
your staff begin to complain of headaches :)

Because of the legacy space situation, ARIN's policies have more impact than
any other RIR.
So it can also be argued that how legacy space is managed at "runout"
 directly affects not only the timely adoption of v6, but also Internet
development and capacity building in the RIRs region.

ARIN as a region possibly has the widest digital divide of the RIRs:
contrasting, the USA, Canada, and  the 22 small Caribbean states.

Supposing we accept the existence of a v4 runout market, good stewardship of
the resource should therefore prevent application and innovation in
developing markets from becoming too expensive due to scarcity value of the
resource.

Arin already provides support for developing countries in its region so it
is not so difficult to develop policy to use those portions of its region
seeking internet development and capacity building to promote v6 adoption in
a myriad of practical ways, since it not only address the digital divide but
also brings them up to speed in the face of market challenges. Did someone
propose IPv6 in a box at a public meeting?

The runout market makers are also going to be challenged by new fledging v6
networks which in themselves are going to act as a test bed for a host of
network technical issues which currently confront easy adoption of v6. It
also provides an opportunity to close the digital divide by
providing subsidies at the bottom where the rate of return is far greater in
the medium to long term than fighting a protracted war with
deeply entrenched IP racketeers.

There is also another perspective here, The ARINCaribbean is not unlike
Africa, in that it has a very high penetration of Mobile; and so quick
adoption of v6 is probably beneficial to economic growth in the region
especially since the global economic downturn. But v6 adoption requires good
planning, investment and collaboration: All of these are in short supply
where the digital divide is a wide one.
Even without a v4 runout headache, there are still big challenges
confronting broadband access in rural areas and low income populations and
it is interesting to note (from an opinion expressed to me) that these
challenges are probably greater than those for the voice telephony of old.

 Rudi Daniel



On Fri, Nov 13, 2009 at 4:07 AM, John Curran <jcurran at arin.net> wrote:

> On Nov 12, 2009, at 2:55 AM, RudOlph Daniel wrote:
> > ...
> > What I am suggesting here is that the network and its policies is not yet
> mature/homogeneous enough to provide a safety net for developing economies
> like the Caribbean in the face of the majority of this RIR with its far
> superior knowledge and experience, but yet not able to foresee the future
> black market shenanigans of a creative first world business professional
> class leveraging the scarcity value of a resource for considerable profit.
>
> Rudi -
>
>   How should ARIN provide a safety net for developing economies in this
> region?  To the extent that you have a suggestion, this is definitely the
> right place to discuss it.
>
> /John
>
> John Curran
> President and CEO
> ARIN
>
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