[arin-ppml] IPv4 Depletion as an ARIN policy concern

Warren Johnson warren at wholesaleinternet.com
Mon Nov 2 10:13:46 EST 2009

[wears flame retardant under-roos]

There is also the very real possibility that we never get to ipv6 and ipv4
simply becomes a closed system with only 4 billion "chips" into the big game
(at least until some technology comes along to supercede everything).  In
the 30's New York City started requiring licenses for taxi's to pick up
fares.  70 years later, the same amount of licenses existed (they did
auction some more off in the last few years).  The system simply adjusted to
that circumstances.  There are other forms of mass transit in that city but
the very specific need  of point-to-point pickup (if you're standing on a
street corner) was only doable through  those licensed taxis.  

As I see it, we can work on policy based on the assumption that we're going
to get to ipv6, or we can work on policy based on the assumption we're never
getting there.  How do we go about picking a direction for policy
development without looking schizophrenic?  Also, does picking the "Dark
side" (meaning never getting to ipv6) totally devestate the migration and
make it a complete non-starter?

-----Original Message-----

If not for #5, IPv6 would have a much easier time getting past the "worthy
enough to deploy" barrier. There's a moderate risk-cost associated with only
being able to use IPv4 given the uncertainty surrounding the end of the free
pool. Weighed against the risk-cost of crashes, malfunctions and security
breaches due to configuration and software changes to enable IPv6, the costs
are almost in parity. But the fact that the systems so-enabled will attempt
IPv6 first and only fall back to IPv4 just kills the whole equation.

Of course, that pendulum could swing the other way too. When whatever
happens post-depletion settles out into a routine, the risk-cost of
continuing with only IPv4 could go way down.

Bill Herrin

William D. Herrin ................ herrin at dirtside.com  bill at herrin.us
3005 Crane Dr. ...................... Web: <http://bill.herrin.us/> Falls
Church, VA 22042-3004 _______________________________________________
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