[arin-ppml] Some data relating to IPv4 address exhaustion (or not)
tvest at pch.net
Wed May 6 13:58:55 EDT 2009
FYI, global demand for "initial allocations" a.k.a., new entrants in
the routing services market -- those for whom neither RFC 1918 nor
IPv6 (as of today) is even remotely substitutable for IPv4 -- stood at
about avg. 2-3 successful seekers *per day* at the lowest moment in
recorded history, c. late 2002, at the bottom of the post-telecom
collapse slump. The Internet is twice as "big" as it was then, and a
similar drop-off today from the long-term trend would probably yield
an equivalent daily demand rate much greater than the old all-time low.
Any observed deviation from the long-term trend that is substantially
larger or longer than the one in 2002 is going to have only two
possible explanations: supply/pricing constraints (market power either
way) and/or the non-observability of what is really going (i.e.,
incremental failure of the registration system).
On May 6, 2009, at 7:22 PM, Eliot Lear wrote:
> Here is my real question: if demand for new address allocations is
> post-runout (meaning greater than 100% allocated when the cost is 0),
> what happens when the cost is > 0 in such an environment? At what
> do we hit a knee of some form?
> On 5/6/09 7:15 PM, William Lehr wrote:
>> That is a reasonable hypothesis, but I would not be surprised if
>> were no correlation at all because of the complex dynamics associated
>> with address usage.
>> Basically, IP addresses are a small share of costs to run a network
>> and even smaller share of corporate IT budgets so should not be
>> closely correlated with it. Yes, there is presumably rough
>> between number of employees, corporate capital expenditures, and
>> such indicators associated with overall economy, but I would expect
>> that to be very noisy. Issues like architecture reconfiguration could
>> increase or decrease need for addresses and so direction of impact of
>> business cycles on IP address demand would be ambiguous.
>> On other hand, since addresses are allocated in one-way process (from
>> unallocated pool to demanders) and new allocations justified by need
>> to meet expanded user-base, there is implicit linkage between
>> cycles and demand, and that seems likely to make it a leading
>> indicator. But in some sense an artificial indicator that is
>> due to current allocation mechanism rather than real "demand." (That
>> is, does address utilitization correlate with demand? My earlier
>> discussion focused more on address utilization.)
>> Interesting academic questions, but I am surprised it makes much of a
>> difference in policy debate. Exhaustion is still pre-ordained
>> conclusion, right? Do a few months one way or other make a big
>> Marshall Eubanks wrote:
>>> On May 6, 2009, at 8:04 AM, Eliot Lear wrote:
>>>> Here are some interesting data points for this group to consider.
>>>> According to the U.N., world economic growth dropped from 3.5-4% in
>>>> 2003-2007 to 2.5% in 2008, and the prediction is for around 1%
>>>> growth in
>>>> 2009. At the same time, Geoff Huston's numbers have been
>>>> shifting to
>>>> the right. In the case of IANA the number has shifted out 6 months
>>>> in 6
>>>> months. We have not seen quite the same shift for RIR numbers,
>>>> however. Is world economic growth a controlling variable in the
>>>> equation of IP address consumption, or merely a coincidence, and
>>>> we tell?
>>> I would expect the RIR allocation requests to be a lagging indicator
>>> of the economic situation, and
>>> that address usage would be simultaneous with or even a leading
>>> indicator of the economy.
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>>> Marshall Eubanks
>>> CEO / AmericaFree.TV
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