[arin-ppml] Mighten it happen like this?
martin.hannigan at batelnet.bs
Mon May 4 17:57:27 EDT 2009
....And policy will _follow_ most of these problems. Just like in the
On 5/3/09, Milton L Mueller <mueller at syr.edu> wrote:
> Nice. You're starting to think like an economist.
> <that's a compliment, don't go ballistic. Gobble, gobble>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On
>> Behalf Of Ted Mittelstaedt
>> Sent: Thursday, April 30, 2009 6:06 PM
>> To: 'ARIN PPML'
>> Subject: [arin-ppml] Mighten it happen like this?
>> In thinking about this IPv4 runout it occurs to me that it might possible
>> go something like this.
>> After the last /8 is assigned to ARIN, the hostmasters there will get out
>> their knives and start slicing off subnets from it. A handful of Very
>> requests will be satisfied from it, then a lot more smaller requests, then
>> the /8 will be as the turkey is on the platter during the last
>> the large breasts gutted but still plenty of edible meat in smaller
>> Then the reclamation efforts will start turning up even smaller and
>> chunks of IPv4 abandonded years earlier - nothing to satisfy the large
>> but still plenty of smaller tasty bits. And in the meantime they will
>> be stripping the carcass of the /8 for the last usable bits.
>> Then the carcass will be done and reclamation will be in full swing now -
>> the IPv4 coming in from reclamation will be somewhat less tasty -
>> blocks, stinky old swampland that may or may not have been used.
>> Then reclamation will start petering off and the IPv4 bits coming in from
>> will be very nasty indeed - blocks with squatters in it that the obtainer
>> of the block will have to actively evict, blocks where the original
>> is still fighting with ARIN over ownership.
>> Then they will get down to the nitty-gritty of trying to piece together
>> sized blocks to allocate from scattered /24's some of which are
>> not - begging and pleading with owners to please move over to this other
>> we can use the one your on to aggregate together a larger block.
>> Somewhere along the way some kind of transfer market may spring up - short
>> though it may be, with a few folks making a killing off selling blocks -
>> time passes it will die down.
>> During this time the number of orgs wanting IPv4 will be decreasing as
>> and more of the requestors give up hope of getting usable IPv4 and more
>> of them migrate to IPv6.
>> So, perhaps maybe fully 4 years after the last /8 is allocated to ARIN
>> very last aggregated subnet of any size will be given out - reclamation
>> exhausted, and pretty much nobody will have any hope left of getting IPv4
>> except from the transfer market. That might mark the "official" end of
>> "free" IPv4.
>> The transfer market will be peaking right around now - as prices get so
>> that it becomes cost effective for even the most retrogade networks to go
>> Then a tipping point will be reached and over a few months the bottom will
>> out of the transfer market and the market will crash, and we will see the
>> of an accellerated schedule of more and more networks dropping IPv4.
>> A few years after that then reports will begin to show up of routing
>> of the IPv4 Internet in certain spots on the Internet.
>> By 4 years after the "official end" of ARIN-assigned IPv4, we will start
>> websites set up with countdown clocks predicting the very last day that
>> will exist on the Internet.
>> Then, sometime in 2020, some politician will send an e-mail titled
>> at a
>> ribbon-cutting ceremony that will mark the last time that a real IPv4
>> be sent over the public Internet from a public client to a public server.
>> Around 2025, Cisco will make proficiency in IPv4 an optional part of it's
>> assesment test.
>> Around 2030, Juniper and Cisco will release firmware that won't have IPv4
>> support in
>> the base load.
>> Does seem like a realistic end-game?
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