[arin-ppml] Will the price per IP really be affected by thetransfer market introduced in 2009-1?

[Joe Maimon]

Ted Mittelstaedt wrote:
>  That is, to pull UNUSED IPv4 out of storage and have someone
> use it.

Agreed. To address inefficiency.

 > This is why if prices go out of sight
> in a transfer market, it fundamentally undercuts the entire reason
> for allowing transfers in the first place. 

Economics invisible hand solves this problem (and more) all the time.

> Since what happens is
> now few people can afford it so the "sellers" just end up sitting on

How does this work in any competition based market system?

Sellers must sell just as buyers must buy, and a seller who wants to 
sell will need to do so at a price both can agree on.

Otherwise they arent making any money, and they will lose sales to the 
first person who will lower prices to make the sale.

> what they have, waiting for that once-in-a-blue-moon spectacular sale
> they can make a killing on.  

When it comes to ipv4, there is an inherent correction to spiraling 
prices of ipv4 due to any activity, including speculation, aside from 
all market theories and mechanisms.

IPv6 migration and the resulting over-abundance of ipv4.

If ipv4 costs too much, for any reason, than ipv6 looks very attractive 
in comparison.

 From an economic perspective, thats a win-win situation. ipv4 is more 
efficiently utilized and/or migration to ipv6 now has financial 
incentive and reward.

The only concern regarding transfer systems that has resonated with me 
to date is government may seize the opportunity to exert control over 
this arena, a risk increased by any appearance of similarity to 
currently regulated markets.

However, this same risk would only grow if or when ipv4 shortage becomes 
a world wide front page issue, full of op-eds that there should be a 
market (or worse), perhaps government controlled.

Damned if you do, damned more if you dont.

The only way out is if one can state with a certainty that runout and 
ipv6 migration will be seamless and painless and almost no-one who can 
will notice or care enough to try to do anything about it. I am not 
ready to lay good odds on that.


Joe