[arin-ppml] Will the price per IP really be affected bythetransfer market introduced in 2009-1?

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net 
> [mailto:arin-ppml-bounces at arin.net] On Behalf Of Kevin Kargel
> Sent: Thursday, May 14, 2009 8:10 AM
> To: Martin Hannigan; ARIN PPML
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Will the price per IP really be 
> affected bythetransfer market introduced in 2009-1?
> 

> 
> Of course you won't "absorb" anything..  the cost will be 
> passed to the end user. 

That is NOT AUTOMATICALLY TRUE.  Can you raise your prices today by
a dollar a month per customer?  Don't you think you would suffer
increased customer loss to a competitor who DIDN'T raise their prices?

It is sheer mental laziness to assume that just because we jack up
costs at the head of the pipeline that costs will rise at all the spigots.
Unfortunately, it appears that a lot of people
are just automatically ASS-YOU-Meing this to be true, and using that
as a justification for pushing a transfer market.

The fact is that if a transfer market ever really did pick up, that
it could have the potential to greatly extend the production lifespan
of IPv4.  If that happened, in markets with a lot of competition, some
ISP's would be driven out of business, who hadn't planned ahead.  Worse,
ISP's who did see this coming would be under tremendous pressure to
game the system RIGHT NOW so as to bulk up their IPv4 holdings.

A transfer market is a very dangerous tool.  If we implement it well,
it will assist in smoothing the IPv6 transition and assist the small
fry who have no leverage to pressure IPv6 uptake.  If we screw it up,
it will greatly prolong and draw-out IPv6 uptake, and severely damage
those ISP's who have no ability to corner their markets or pressure
IPv6 adoption.

Ted