[arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Transfer Policy - Revised andforwarded to the Board

[Stephen Sprunk]

michael.dillon at bt.com wrote:
>> If companies hear that they can get money for giving up space, many (but not all) of them are going to do an inventory and find out what they have but don't actually need so that they can cash in. 
>>     
>
> Sorry, but the business world does not work like that. In order to do any recovery work, you have to make a business case which involves balancing the costs of the work, versus the returns from selling the IP addresses and also factor in the risk that the price will be rather lower than expected, plus the risks related to potential disruption caused by the cleanup.
>   

We're actually in agreement here.  Obviously, the first step is to 
determine how much space one could free up and what the cost would be to 
do so.  Then you decide how much money you want for it, and put in your 
ask in the listing system.  If someone buys, you do the work and take 
the profit; if not, you either keep doing what you've been doing or 
lower your price.

> Earlier you described seeing many cases of sloppiness and your motive is to provide an incentive to clean up. But did't you notice that this kind of sloppiness is accepted within the businesses that you looked at? They've looked at the  full spectrum of activity that they could do, and decided that some things, although ugly, just don't cause negative impacts to customers, so it is better to leave well enough alone.
>   

Of course; there will always be a cost/benefit analysis applied.  In a 
free market, though, the price will rise to the point that sufficient 
supply is available to meet the demand.

> P.S. I don't doubt that a few businesses will spend some big cash to buy up addresses and avert catastrophe, but they will pay big bucks because the supply will be extremely limited.  That will be the end of the IP address market as people realise that it is not stable, can't be relied on, and that there may not really be enough available addresses anywhere in the world.  IPv6 will be like an oasis in the desert. End of story

I don't think that there is sufficient data at this time to support (or 
refute) that theory.  I can come up with arguments that there will be a 
very few but high-dollar sales and others that there will be a lot of 
low-dollar sales, and I have no clue if they're right -- or if what 
we'll actually see is the complete failure of the market due to 
instability or other external factors (e.g. IPv6).  _Anyone_ who is sure 
of what is going to happen is probably wrong, regardless of what they 
believe.  If you have such a great crystal ball, I suggest getting out 
of tech and investing in lottery tickets instead.

S

-- 
Stephen Sprunk         "God does not play dice."  --Albert Einstein
CCIE #3723         "God is an inveterate gambler, and He throws the
K5SSS        dice at every possible opportunity." --Stephen Hawking

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