[arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Transfer Policy -Revised andforwarded to the Board

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> > This isn't going to change unless it really starts to hit the 
> > bottom line, and that will happen when IANA runs out of IPv4 
> > addresses and companies have to face up to the fact that they 
> > are unlikely to ever get more addresses from ARIN, or if they 
> > do get more, it will be less than they need. At that point, 
> > something which could cause a simple T1 install to fail 
> > becomes a big risk to the bottom line because the customer 
> > ordering that T1 has a hundred or two other circuits, plus 
> > colo, plus other value-add services, and the company risks 
> > losing all of it for the want of an address. 
> > <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/For_Want_of_a_Nail>
> > 
> > That is what will motivate businesses,
> 
> That will motivate them to BUY IPv4.  It WON'T motivate
> ANYONE ELSE to SELL the IPv4 they have. 

That is exactly my point, except that you are to specific when
you say "buy IPv4". It will also motivate them to find IPv4
elsewhere in their business, perhaps by cancelling the contract
of a customer who is not so profitable. And it will motivate
them to get IPv6 out sooner so that low margin customers can
go on IPv6 and the IPv4 can be saved for high margin customers
who can't use IPv6 services yet.

I realise that small businesses often don't have the mix of
services to do some of these things, but that just means
they are in a more fragile position. If their business can
survive without growing the customer base, then that might
work for many small businesses. For the rest it is bankruptcy 
or sell out at fire sale prices.

It wouldn't surprise me to see an increase in rollup activity
in the next couple of years as ISPs who don't think they can
handle the IPv6 transition scramble to sell out.

> On the positive side, when that customer takes all their hundred
> circuits elsewhere, the company will then have lots of IPv4
> freed up! ;-)

That's not positive. Losing a customer to free up IPv4 is only
positive when it is a low profit customer that is lost and you
do it to save a high profit customer.

--Michael Dillon