[arin-ppml] Will the price per IP really be affected by the transfer market introduced in 2009-1?

[Ted Mittelstaedt]

Hi All,

  I have a question for everyone's consideration.

  If a transfer market goes into effect, after 5 years, what would a
reasonable
estimate be for the amount of IPv4 in production, that was in production as
a
result of a costly org-to-org directed transfer?   And, is it realistic to
assume that cost of all other IPv4 to the customer will be affected?

  If for example, after 5 years only .005% of all IPv4 in service
on the Internet was in service as a result of a transfer, then even if
/8's are going for 50 million dollars, wouldn't competition pretty
much mandate that the ISP paying transfer fees be utterly
unable to pass that cost along to their customers as a surcharge on
IPv4?

Ted