[arin-ppml] Policy Proposal: Extend 16 bit ASN Assignments

Thu May 7 16:51:51 EDT 2009

I oppose this policy as written.

Looking at ARIN's historical statistics, it appears as though ARIN issues 1,600 to 1,700 ASNs each year.

Looking at IANA's stats:
35840-36863 Assigned by ARIN 2005-02
39936-40959 Assigned by ARIN 2006-03-29
46080-47103 Assigned by ARIN 2008-03-27
53248-54271 Assigned by ARIN 2009-04-21
54272-55295 Assigned by ARIN 2009-04-21
Excluding April 2009, ARIN has only requested 3,072 ASNs since February 2005.

Looking again at ARIN's historical statistics, they have issued 6,550 ASNs from 2005 through 2008, but have only gotten 3,072 ASNs from the IANA.

Where's the difference?
In San Antonio, Leslie gave a presentation that included information about returned and revoked ASNs. Slide 10 of the presentation indicates 4,357 ASNs have been returned to ARIN since January 2005.

So it looks like ARIN is recycling unused ASNs, prolonging the lifespan of the free 16-bit ASN pool.
Projecting this forward, at current consumption rates it should take approximately 32 months for ARIN to use up the 2,048 ASNs issued on 2009-04-21 by IANA, which puts us somewhere near December 2012.

ARIN's historical statistics:
https://www.arin.net/knowledge/statistics/historical.html
IANA's stats:
http://www.iana.org/assignments/as-numbers/
Presentation foils:
https://www.arin.net/participate/meetings/reports/ARIN_XXIII/ppt/wednesday/rsd.ppt

Cheers,
Aaron

On Thu, May 07, 2009 at 01:19:36PM -0700, Scott Leibrand wrote:
> I disagree.  We are still waiting to get a release of the code train we 
> use on the Cisco 7600 platform that supports 32-bit ASNs.  It sounds 
> like they're finally getting close, but I think a further extension 
> probably would be helpful.
> 
> We'll have a much better view of what's required by the fall meeting, 
> when this is up for discussion.  Since that will be our last chance to 
> change policy before the current 1 Jan 2010 deadline, I definitely think 
> this needs to be on the agenda.
> 
> -Scott
> 
> Owen DeLong wrote:
> > NIT:  The revised text of 5.1 (or at least specific amendments to it) 
> > should be
> > stated as part of the Policy statement. The rationale section is not a 
> > binding
> > part of the policy.
> >
> > Substance: This policy simply isn't needed. Current software for most
> > routers supports 32 bit ASNs. There's been ample warning for providers
> > and other organizations to update their management systems, scripts,
> > etc. If they haven't done it by now, they are only going to do it in 
> > response
> > to the change actually happening.  Putting it off further does not really
> > benefit the community.
> >
> > I am opposed to this policy as written.
> >
> >> ## * ##
> >>
> >>
> >> Policy Proposal Name: Extend 16 bit ASN Assignments
> >>
> >> Proposal Originator: Marla Azinger
> >>
> >> Proposal Version: 1
> >>
> >> Submission Date: 6 May 2009
> >>
> >> Proposal type: Modify
> >>
> >> Policy term: Permanent
> >>
> >> Policy statement: This proposal is to modify section 5.1 in the NRPM to
> >> extend the 16-bit ASN assignment timeframe for one more year further
> >> than the current text. The expiration requiring removal of section 5.1
> >> is also being removed.
> >>
> >> Rationale:
> >>
> >> Currently users of 32-bit ASN?s are encountering technical issues that
> >> they can?t immediately overcome and therefore require 16-bit ASN?s to
> >> operate. As a result in the ARIN region to date, 204 of the 216 32-bit
> >> ASN?s that have been assigned have been returned and exchanged for a 16
> >> bit ASN. On 1 JAN 2010 ARIN policy declares zero distinction between
> >> 32-bit and 16-bit ASN?s. This proposal is to change the date on the
> >> third line of NRPM 5.1 and extend the timeframe for 16 bit ASN?s to be
> >> assigned. If these changes are made then ARIN RIR ASN policy will read
> >> clearly and remove any misconceptions of 16-bit cutoff post run out and
> >> enable technology to catch up to the ASN bit change. The expiration date
> >> that requires removal of section 5.1 after zero distinction occurs is to
> >> be removed. Instead section 5.1 will be left in place in the NRPM for
> >> value added historical purposes.
> >>
> >> The revision of 5.1 would read as follows:
> >>
> >> 5.1 16-bit and 32-bit AS Numbers
> >>
> >> ? Commencing 1 January 2007, ARIN will process applications that
> >> specifically request 32-bit only AS Numbers and assign such AS numbers
> >> as requested by the applicant. In the absence of any specific request
> >> for a 32-bit only AS Number, a 16-bit only AS Number will be assigned.
> >>
> >> ? Commencing 1 January 2009, ARIN will process applications that
> >> specifically request 16-bit only AS Numbers and assign such AS Numbers
> >> as requested by the applicant. In the absence of any specific request
> >> for a 16-bit only AS Number, a 32-bit only AS Number will be assigned.
> >>
> >> ? Commencing 1 January 2011, ARIN will cease to make any distinction
> >> between 16-bit only AS Numbers and 32-bit only AS Numbers, and will
> >> operate AS number assignments from an undifferentiated 32-bit AS Number
> >> pool.
> >>
> >> Terminology
> >>
> >> ? "16-bit only AS Numbers" refers to AS numbers in the range 0 - 65535
> >>
> >> ? "32-bit only AS Numbers" refers to AS Numbers in the range 65,536 -
> >> 4,294,967,295
> >>
> >> ? "32-bit AS Numbers" refers to AS Numbers in the range 0 - 
> >> 4,294,967,295
> >>
> >> Timetable for implementation: Immediate
> >>
> >>
> >> _______________________________________________
> >> PPML
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> >> Please contact info at arin.net if you experience any issues.
> >
> > ------------------------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > _______________________________________________
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Aaron Hughes 
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