[arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Is there an Emergency?

David Farmer farmer at umn.edu
Tue Mar 31 19:47:37 EDT 2009

On 31 Mar 2009 Chris Grundemann wrote:

> I am not convinced that the car hitting the wall analogy is of much
> use when discussing IPv4 free-pool exhaustion, mainly because I can't
> seem to envision many organizations (if any) exploding at IANA, RIR,
> or ISP free IPv4 runout.  Perhaps a car running out of gas is a more
> applicable comparison?  

I like the car running out of gas analogy too, but I wanted the the airbag 
analogy for 2009-2, and the airbags don't go off when you run out of gas, at 
least I hope the don't. ;)

> I know it lacks the drama of a giant fireball but it seems more
> accurate.  

Cars only burst into a fireballs in Hollywood, I think it is some in the gas out 
there. :)  

A car accident also, makes me think of the irresistible force (Internet Growth) 
hitting the immovable object (IPv4 exhaustion), and the violent interaction 
that I believe will happen.  I just believe that that interaction is in slow motion 
something like a 1ms in the car accident equals a day for IPv4 exhaustion.

> Organizations unable to obtain more
> address space will not cease to exist, they will simply cease to grow
> (unless they adopt an alternative source of IP / fuel).  Also, I have
> a very hard time determining the location of a single collective car
> along this path - as someone (please forgive me for not looking up
> who) astutely pointed out in a previous ppml thread; IPv4 free pool
> exhaustion has effectively already happened for many orgs who will not
> be able to justify an allocation in the near future (2- years) but may
> need more addresses in the longer term.

That was me, and thanks for the quote. :)

That is way we call them metaphores and analogies.

Another analogy is Y2K and Digital TV is another, none of them are perfect, 
but many of them fit in one way or another.  I picked a car acident because I 
was trying to modivate a discussion about why this is an emergency.  Which 
I still think it is.

David Farmer				     Email:	farmer at umn.edu
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