[arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Is there an Emergency?

Tue Mar 31 18:54:59 EDT 2009

I'm totally lost but maybe someone can help I'm sports spectrum and thinking
about changing my Internet provider.When I change providers can my IP
addresses follow me?

Thanks

MCI Communications Services, Inc. d/b/a Verizon Business UUNET65-2
(NET-65-240-0-0-1)
                                  65.240.0.0 - 65.253.255.255
SPORTS SPECTRUM INC, THE UU-65-248-200 (NET-65-248-200-0-1)
                                  65.248.200.0 - 65.248.200.255

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "Sam Polito" <sam-SPAM at sports-spectrum.com>
To: "Chris Grundemann" <cgrundemann at gmail.com>; "David Farmer" 
<farmer at umn.edu>
Cc: <arin-ppml at arin.net>
Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 5:54 PM
Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Is there an Emergency?

> I'm totally lost but maybe someone can help I'm sports spectrum and 
> thinking about changing my Internet provider.When I change providers can 
> my IP addresses follow me?
>
> Thanks
>
>
> MCI Communications Services, Inc. d/b/a Verizon Business UUNET65-2 
> (NET-65-240-0-0-1)
>                                  65.240.0.0 - 65.253.255.255
> SPORTS SPECTRUM INC, THE UU-65-248-200 (NET-65-248-200-0-1)
>                                  65.248.200.0 - 65.248.200.255
>
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "Chris Grundemann" <cgrundemann at gmail.com>
> To: "David Farmer" <farmer at umn.edu>
> Cc: <arin-ppml at arin.net>
> Sent: Tuesday, March 31, 2009 4:17 PM
> Subject: Re: [arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-1: Is there an Emergency?
>
>
> On Mon, Mar 30, 2009 at 00:05, David Farmer <farmer at umn.edu> wrote:
>> I would like to motivate a discussion of the question "Is there
>> an Emergency?"
>>
>> I have heard several people express the opinion that they don't
>> see an emergency. I would like to respectfully disagree with
>> that opinion.
>>
>> In my opinion the crux of the emergency is IPv4 exhaustion
>> combined with the lack of IPv6 adoption, which means we are
>> going to hit the proverbial wall when it comes to functional IP
>> address availability. But when does this become an
>> emergency?
>>
>> Maybe we can use a car accident as a metaphor; When does
>> a car accident start? When you hit the wall? When the
>> airbags deploy? When you fail to make the turn or hit the
>> breaks in time to prevent yourself from hitting the wall?
>>
>> Using this metaphor, I propose; IANA free pool exhaustion is
>> equivalent to the car hitting the wall. The trigger set in 2009-2:
>> Depleted IPv4 Reserves, is the equivalent of the airbags going
>> off shortly after the car hits the wall. RIR and ISP free pool
>> exhaustion are equivalent to the passengers hitting the interior
>> of the car and the brain and internal organs colliding with the
>> skull and the rest of the body, receptively.
>>
>> So when did the IPv4 car accident start, when did we hit the
>> point where we would inextricably hit the wall? I'm not exactly
>> sure, but I think most of us started realizing back in 2007 that
>> we were going to inextricably hit the wall. And today, to me
>> personally it is virtually unquestionable that will we are going to
>> hit the wall. We obviously haven't hit the wall just yet, but the
>> car is headed toward the wall to fast to stop or turn, the
>> accident must and will happen.
>
> I am not convinced that the car hitting the wall analogy is of much
> use when discussing IPv4 free-pool exhaustion, mainly because I can't
> seem to envision many organizations (if any) exploding at IANA, RIR,
> or ISP free IPv4 runout.  Perhaps a car running out of gas is a more
> applicable comparison?  I know it lacks the drama of a giant fireball
> but it seems more accurate.  Organizations unable to obtain more
> address space will not cease to exist, they will simply cease to grow
> (unless they adopt an alternative source of IP / fuel).  Also, I have
> a very hard time determining the location of a single collective car
> along this path - as someone (please forgive me for not looking up
> who) astutely pointed out in a previous ppml thread; IPv4 free pool
> exhaustion has effectively already happened for many orgs who will not
> be able to justify an allocation in the near future (2- years) but may
> need more addresses in the longer term.
>
> So there are a bunch of vehicles all moving along fueled (almost
> exclusively) by IPv4 and if nothing is done, they will stop moving.
> So the emergency is not a collision but a stall and when that happens
> is largely dependent on each individual vehicle's actions.  Mega ISP
> is akin to a bus carrying many customers along with them and thus
> burning fuel quite quickly; but they have a lot of it.  Mom's Shop is
> more like a hybrid; carrying little fuel but only sipping it along the
> way.  And ARIN is pit lane, the gas station -- with one obvious
> difference; IP is not truly consumed so those no longer needing it to
> fuel their car can return it to the station (or transfer it to
> others).
>
>>From this perspective the emergency begins for each vehicle when they
> reach a point where they _will_ stall.  I think the better question
> though (and the one you are asking) is when does it become an
> emergency for the community as a whole?  When is it an emergency for
> the ARIN region?  Unfortunately, to this I do not have a definitive
> answer.  Is it when we know that any one member will stall?  Or when
> 10% reach that point?  25%, 50%?  What portion of our community is at
> this point already?
>
> The thing I wonder about most though, is when the BoT declared this an
> emergency, were they speaking about the ARIN community or ARIN itself
> (or maybe both)?
>
> ~Chris
>
>>
>> Further, it is possible we don't have as much time as we think
>> we do. We currently have approximately 500 Million IPv4
>> address in the IANA Free Pool. While current projections,
>> based on current usage rates, provide a little over two years to
>> exhaustion[1]. However, it is not difficult to imagine scenarios
>> where the IANA free pool could be exhausted much sooner
>> than that. For example, if mobile providers were to start
>> issuing IPv4 address to mobile hand sets it wouldn't be hard to
>> exhaust the IANA free pool in no time flat[2].
>>
>> [1] http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
>>
>> [2]
>> http://newsroom.parksassociates.com/article_display.cfm?articl
>> e_id=5128
>>
>> I'm not saying that will or even should happen, but it is by no
>> means impossible. Further, under current policies if the mobile
>> industry came to the RIRs for IPv4 addresses for hand set, the
>> RIRs would likely have to fulfill the requests, and exhaust the
>> IANA free pool in short order.
>>
>> Therefore, at least in reference to IPv4, I believe there is a
>> valid Emergency.
>>
>> So, I'm interested to hear other people's opinion on if there is
>> an emergency.
>>
>> ================================================
>> =======
>> David Farmer Email:
>> farmer at umn.edu
>> Office of Information Technology
>> Networking & Telecomunication Services
>> University of Minnesota Phone: 612-626-
>> 0815
>> 2218 University Ave SE Cell:
>> 612-812-9952
>> Minneapolis, MN 55414-3029 FAX: 612-626-
>> 1818
>> ================================================
>> =======
>>
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> -- 
> Chris Grundemann
> weblog.chrisgrundemann.com
> _______________________________________________
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