[arin-ppml] Draft Policy2009-1: TransferPolicy (UsingtheEmergencyPDP)

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> Google isn't going to stop growing just because ARIN won't 
> give them more addresses. They will go back and scavenge all 
> the ones they have, they will get them from other RIRs until 
> those RIRs are also out, they will assign additional value to 
> potential acquisitions that have existing PI IPv4 space, 
> especially if that space is underutilized, and they will 
> acquire or lease address space as necessary from other 
> entities that, with money applied, can find spare addresses 
> to release.

No they won't. Google is one of the leaders in moving to IPv6. They
don't have to scavenge, cheat, beg or borrow IPv4 addresses because they
are already making their infrastructure IPv6 compliant. In addition they
are using non-IP custom protocols internally in some of their data
centers.

> This is a lot like how Sprint and Clearwire leased ITFS (now 
> EBS) spectrum on 30-year leases from universities that didn't 
> need all the instructional television channels they were 
> licensed for. 

Completely different situation. Spectrum is fixed and finite. IPv4
addresses exist beside plentiful IPv6 resources that are free for the
asking.

> Innovative new services probably will be using IPv6.

That's why Google offers some services to IPv6 peers which are not
available on IPv4 at all.

> But 
> they'll also want to serve the large pool of existing 
> potential customers who are on
> IPv4 and who don't have access to an IPv4 to IPv6 proxy yet. 

This is a vanishingly small number of people given the ability of Google
to run 6to4 proxies in their own infrastructure. You should also
investigate how Teredo works.


> In between those two times, there is value to new entrants 
> and growing entities in acquiring more IPv4 space.

Only to entities which are not publicly traded. Any publicly traded
entity will see severe downward pressure on their share prices if they
haven't already sorted out the problem by deploying IPv6. Depressed
share prices make a company target for acquisition by a company that has
their IPv6 deployment well in hand.

--Michael Dillon