[arin-ppml] Draft Policy 2009-2: Depleted IPv4 reserves

[michael.dillon at bt.com]

> However, what this all leads to, 
> of course, is whether or not ANY large ISP's have begun 
> large-scale roll-out of new broadband
> (cable/DSL) residential customers in such a fashion that 
> those new customers are forced to use IPv6?
> 
> If that has started happening, have the technical details of 
> the "model" 
> been widely published or are they a closely guarded secret?  

Google for DOCSIS 3.0 for cable ISPs, and for DSL have a look here
<http://www.broadband-forum.org/technical/technicalwip.php> at WT 177. I
believe that IPv6 will be included in the next release of BroadbandSuite
3.1.

As for what people are doing on their core networks, it depends on
whether or not they use MPLS, and how big the jop is. Some non-MPLS
networks are going to dual-stack, others are building an overlay pure
IPv6 network using tunnels to key PoPs where they will have early IPv6
customer. And MPLS networks are probably deploying 6VPE although some
may also be building overlays using pseudowire. But the very biggest
companies actually have several networks internally due to acquisition
history so they will be doing all of the above and more.

> If it HAS started happening, then the depletion of IPv4 
> should be a moot point.

It has started happening but most large companies are careful
not to say too much about future services because they don't 
want their competitors to learn the specifics too soon.

> I understand my comments might sound naive, but if no such "clean" 
> transitional model exists, then we's in a world of hurt.

We still have at least one and a half years for large ISPs to get new
allocations, and then they will be able to mine IPv4 addresses
internally
for quite some time by forcing certain types of customers onto IPv6 or
by simply shutting down less profitable IPv4 dependent
services/customers.
Every companies internal timeline looks different, but it is fair to say
that the ones who take too long will likely suffer decreased valuations
and be acquired by the ones who took the lead and made IPv6 work
profitably.

--Michael Dillon