[arin-ppml] debunking the myth that Moore's law helps

Michel Py michel at arneill-py.sacramento.ca.us
Sat Dec 19 00:25:18 EST 2009

> Alan Whinery wrote:
> [Linksys WRT610N]

Thanks for the detailed feedback.

So, the switch part works at wire speed; that was somehow expected,
given that the backplane capacity on a 4-port switch is a non-issue. The
NAT part goes over 100Mbps but not much. Does everyone agree that a $250
device with something like an Atom CPU would get ~800Mps NAT (if there
was a market for that device today)?

>>> Michel Py wrote:
>>> [GigE residential] This also means that by the first day ISPs
>>> start to deploy GigE for residential Internet service, the typical
>>> home "router" will already be capable of sucking this GigE pipe dry.

>> Lee Dilkie wrote:
>> I wonder how much b/w to the home is actually needed and
>> if there is a natural demand "limit". [SNIP] Is it really
>> reasonable to expect future b/w demands to the home to
>> keep going up and up? What drivers do you see for this?

> Kevin Kargel wrote:
> HD video to the home over IP is already a reality.  MPEG4 will
> help this, but still figure 10Mbps of multicast IP per HD stream,
> and it is not beyond reality for a single family residence to have
> four TV's and a couple of PVR's all watching different channels..
> so that could be over 60Mbps right there..

Agree, and these are low numbers. Not trying to push FUD or marketing
bu||$hi7, but "True HD blah blah uncompressed that looks as good as
BluRay" ads are already there, and we might look at 20Mps per stream.
And indeed 6 streams may not be enough in the long run; just listen to
the current "Uverse" commercial: 4 streams already.

> Add in some security video streams, a couple of game stations
> a few piddly VOIP connections, a few instances of Microsoft update,
> junior pirating music and daddy downloading porn and you are starting
> to build up a pretty significant bandwidth requirement.

LMAO. Don't forget that mom also pirates music and junior also looks at
porn :-)

I have been saying for a while that FTTH deployments based on anything
less than GigE are a disaster waiting to happen. The situation today is
clear, IMHO: 100Mpbs is not enough and 10Gig is way too expensive. GigE
is the name of the game for FTTH.

> As more bandwidth is available the apps will grow to consume it.
> Nature abhors a vacuum.  There has to be some law of supply and
> demand that says that the amount of bandwidth required will grow
> to exceed what is available.

Ack. As of today, at least. It seems to me that in the HDD storage
market, the supply has exceeded the demand, but not on the bandwidth

> Kevin Kargel wrote:
> Remember the famous quote "Nobody will EVER need more than 640K of
> Ted Mittelstaedt wrote:
> You can never have "too much bandwidth" That's like having "too much"

Well I'd say that either may eventually get old, but the day I get this
GigE home link for $20/mo or get stranded on a tropical island with 5
beautiful young women and nothing to do all day, I would probably test
the theory for a while ;-)


More information about the ARIN-PPML mailing list